Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - For the soybean/meal market, it is in a state of mixed long - and short - term factors. The cost of soybean imports is showing a stable and slightly rising trend, while the domestic meal market is in a seasonal supply surplus. It is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to profit margins, supply pressure, and new supply - side drivers [3][5]. - For the palm oil market, the price is expected to remain above 4300 ringgit. The market is supported by factors such as the US biodiesel policy, low inventory in India and Southeast Asia, and the expected B50 policy in Indonesia. However, the upside is limited by factors like annual - level production increase expectations and uncertain RVO rules. It is expected to be volatile and bullish [6][9]. - For the sugar market, the probability of a significant rebound in raw sugar prices is low due to increased production in Brazil and expected production increases in the Northern Hemisphere. Domestically, with increasing imports and high import profits, Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [11][12]. - For the cotton market, the USDA report and the suspension of tariffs are positive factors, but weak downstream consumption and slow de - stocking may cause short - term prices to remain in a high - level oscillation [14][15]. - For the egg market, large supply leads to weaker - than - expected prices in the peak season. The short - term market may fluctuate, and in the medium - term, selling opportunities after rebounds should be focused on [17][19]. - For the pig market, the spot price has temporarily stabilized, and the market is expected to enter a range - bound oscillation. In the short - term, low - price buying is recommended, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the upper - limit pressure [21][22]. 3. Summary by Categories Soybean/Meal - Important Information: On Tuesday night, US soybeans declined. Some regions had higher - than - expected soybean yields, and Brazilian premiums slightly decreased, leading to a drop in soybean import costs. Domestic meal spot basis was stable, with weak trading and good pick - up. Last week, 2.339 million tons of soybeans were crushed, and this week, 2.4043 million tons are expected. The US soybean - growing area is expected to have less rainfall in the next two weeks, and the USDA has significantly reduced the planting area, with a 1.08 - million - ton decrease in US soybean production [3]. - Trading Strategy: Due to the stable and slightly rising trend of soybean import costs and the seasonal supply surplus in the domestic meal market, it is recommended to go long at the lower end of the cost range and pay attention to profit margins, supply pressure, and new supply - side drivers [5]. Palm Oil - Important Information: From August 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports increased by 23.67% compared to the same period last month, and the 1 - 15 - day exports are expected to increase by 16.5% - 21.3%. From August 1 - 15, production increased by 0.88%, with a 1.78% decrease in yield per unit and a 0.51% increase in oil extraction rate compared to the same period last month. The MPOC expects palm oil prices to remain above 4300 ringgit. On Tuesday night, domestic oils declined due to the overall commodity market sentiment [6]. - Trading Strategy: The market is supported by multiple factors but has upside limitations. It is expected to be volatile and bullish [9]. Sugar - Important Information: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou sugar futures oscillated. The closing price of the January contract was 5661 yuan/ton, down 1 yuan/ton or 0.19%. Spot prices in various regions remained unchanged. In July, the average sugarcane yield in southern Brazil decreased by 5.6% year - on - year [11]. - Trading Strategy: The probability of a significant rebound in raw sugar prices is low, and Zhengzhou sugar prices are likely to continue to decline [12]. Cotton - Important Information: On Tuesday, Zhengzhou cotton futures oscillated. The closing price of the January contract was 14100 yuan/ton, down 25 yuan/ton or 0.18%. The spot price remained unchanged, and the US cotton good - quality rate as of August 17 was 55%, up 2 percentage points from the previous week and 13 percentage points year - on - year [14]. - Trading Strategy: Short - term prices may remain in a high - level oscillation due to positive and negative factors [15]. Egg - Important Information: The national egg price was generally stable with some slight declines. The average price in the main production areas was 3.21 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and demand was weak, so egg prices may be stable or decline [17]. - Trading Strategy: The short - term market may fluctuate, and in the medium - term, selling opportunities after rebounds should be focused on [19]. Pig - Important Information: The domestic pig price was half - stable and half - rising. The average price in Henan increased by 0.09 yuan to 13.77 yuan/kg, while that in Sichuan remained at 13.47 yuan/kg. Northern price increases may drive up prices in some regions, while central regions may remain stable [21]. - Trading Strategy: The market is expected to enter a range - bound oscillation. In the short - term, low - price buying is recommended, and in the medium - term, attention should be paid to the upper - limit pressure [22].
五矿期货农产品早报-20250820
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-08-20 02:17