铅：海外库存大幅增加，价格承压

Report Summary Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core View The overseas inventory of lead has increased significantly, putting pressure on the price. The lead trend strength is -1, indicating a bearish outlook [1]. Summary by Relevant Items 1. Fundamental Tracking - Price: The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract was 16,825 yuan/ton, up 0.30%, and the closing price of the LME lead 3M electronic disk was 1,980.5 dollars/ton, down 0.03% [1]. - Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai lead main contract was 27,255 lots, a decrease of 3,340 lots, and the open interest was 48,112 lots, a decrease of 1,384 lots. The trading volume of LME lead was 6,041 lots, an increase of 2,208 lots, and the open interest was 159,411 lots, an increase of 297 lots [1]. - Premium and Discount: The premium of Shanghai 1 lead was -25 yuan/ton, unchanged; the LME CASH - 3M premium was -44 dollars/ton, a decrease of 5.5 dollars/ton. The import premium was 105 dollars/ton, unchanged [1]. - Inventory: The Shanghai lead futures inventory was 61,353 tons, a decrease of 872 tons, and the LME lead inventory was 282,950 tons, an increase of 22,475 tons. The LME lead cancelled warrants were 54,250 tons, a decrease of 6,725 tons [1]. - Profit and Loss: The spot import profit and loss of lead ingots was -485.82 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.25 yuan/ton, and the import profit and loss of the Shanghai lead continuous third contract was -548.94 yuan/ton, a decrease of 18.57 yuan/ton. The comprehensive profit and loss of recycled lead was -487 yuan/ton, unchanged [1]. 2. News - The US Department of Commerce officially announced that 407 types of steel and aluminum derivative products such as wind turbines would be included in the tariff list, suddenly expanding the scope of Trump's steel and aluminum tariffs, catching US importers off - guard [1]. - The meeting place for the US - Russia - Ukraine tri - party talks is considering Budapest, Geneva, or even Russia. US media reported that Trump said Ukraine might need to make territorial concessions to reach a potential agreement [1].