申万期货品种策略日报：聚烯烃（LL、PP）-20250820

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - Polyolefin futures are running weakly. The spot market of polyolefins is mainly driven by supply - demand factors. The market heat has cooled down, and the inventory is slowly being digested after the previous rebound. The short - term petrochemical inventory may fluctuate, and the destocking process in summer is tortuous. However, domestic demand is the main driver at the macro level, and the terminal备货 demand may gradually pick up in the middle and late August. The focus should be on the autumn stocking market rhythm after supply - demand digestion and the potential changes in the cost side [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - LL and PP Futures Prices: For LL, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7307, 7291, and 7268 respectively, with changes of - 27, - 21, and - 24 compared to the day before, and percentage changes of - 0.37%, - 0.29%, and - 0.33% respectively. For PP, the previous day's closing prices for January, May, and September contracts were 7016, 7032, and 6987 respectively, with changes of - 32, - 16, and - 39 compared to the day before, and percentage changes of - 0.45%, - 0.23%, and - 0.56% respectively [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of LL for January, May, and September contracts were 195031, 3873, and 54494 respectively, and the open interests were 360140, 18851, and 125736 respectively, with changes of 18234, 761, and - 22109 respectively. For PP, the trading volumes for January, May, and September contracts were 198360, 7393, and 50844 respectively, and the open interests were 416594, 28997, and 81393 respectively, with changes of 24874, 1950, and - 18050 respectively [2]. - Price Spreads: The current price spreads of LL for January - May, May - September, and September - January are 16, 23, and - 39 respectively, compared to previous values of 22, 20, and - 42. For PP, the current price spreads for January - May, May - September, and September - January are - 16, 45, and - 29 respectively, compared to previous values of 0, 22, and - 22 [2]. Spot Market - Raw Materials: The current prices of methanol futures, Shandong propylene, South China propane, PP recycled materials, North China powder, and mulch film are 2395 yuan/ton, 6410 yuan/ton, 560 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively. The previous values were 2400 yuan/ton, 6425 yuan/ton, 564 dollars/ton, 5600 yuan/ton, 6800 yuan/ton, and 8800 yuan/ton respectively [2]. - Intermediate and Final Products: The current price ranges of LL in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton, and 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton respectively. The previous price ranges were 6950 - 7100 yuan/ton, 7250 - 7700 yuan/ton, and 7200 - 7450 yuan/ton. For PP, the current price ranges in the East China, North China, and South China markets are 6950 - 7050 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6850 - 7100 yuan/ton respectively, and the previous price ranges were 7400 - 7750 yuan/ton, 6900 - 7000 yuan/ton, and 6900 - 7100 yuan/ton [2]. News - On Tuesday (August 19), the settlement price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures for September 2025 on the New York Mercantile Exchange was $62.35 per barrel, down $1.07 or 1.69% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $62.25 - $63.39. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures for October 2025 on the London Intercontinental Exchange was $65.79 per barrel, down $0.81 or 1.22% from the previous trading day, with a trading range of $65.61 - $66.58 [2].