光大期货金融期货日报-20250820

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings - Stock Index Futures: Neutral (Oscillation) [1] - Treasury Bond Futures: Bearish in the short term, neutral (oscillation) in the long term [2] 2. Core Views - Stock Index Futures: The recent rise in the stock market is mainly due to three logics. Long - term: The market anticipates fiscal policy to shift more towards promoting consumption and an increase in the domestic inflation level after the easing of Sino - US relations. Medium - term: The anti - involution trend and infrastructure investment on the demand side benefit upstream cyclical sectors. Short - term: The capital market has relatively abundant liquidity, with funds flowing in due to RMB appreciation and improved enterprise deposit and loan data [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: In the short term, the bond market is under pressure due to the recovery of risk appetite. However, there are no significant changes in the capital and fundamental aspects, and the bond market lacks directional drivers. It should be treated with an oscillation mindset in the long term [2] 3. Summary by Section Research Views - Stock Index Futures: On August 19, the A - share market fluctuated with increased trading volume. The Wind All - A index fell by 0.05% with a trading volume of 2.64 trillion yuan. The CSI 1000 index rose by 0.07%, while the CSI 500, SSE 50, and CSI 300 indices fell by 0.19%, 0.93%, and 0.38% respectively. Personal consumption loan subsidy policies and the implementation of the parenting subsidy system are expected to boost the economy. The central bank may purchase national debt to support more inclusive fiscal policies [1]. - Treasury Bond Futures: On August 19, the 30 - year, 10 - year, 5 - year, and 2 - year treasury bond futures contracts rose by 0.26%, 0.06%, 0.06%, and 0.03% respectively. The central bank conducted 580.3 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 465.7 billion yuan. The weighted average interest rates of DR001 and DR007 increased [2] Daily Price Changes - Stock Index Futures: On August 19, compared with August 18, IH fell by 1.16%, IF by 0.51%, IC by 0.12%, and IM by 0.10%. Among the stock indices, the SSE 50 fell by 0.93%, the CSI 300 by 0.38%, the CSI 500 by 0.19%, and the CSI 1000 rose by 0.07% [3] - Treasury Bond Futures: On August 19, compared with August 18, TS rose by 0.03%, TF by 0.08%, T by 0.04%, and TL by 0.39% [3] Market News - From January to July, the national general public budget revenue was 1.35839 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 0.1%. Among them, tax revenue was 1.10933 trillion yuan, a year - on - year decrease of 0.3%, and non - tax revenue was 249.06 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2% [4] - The Ministry of Finance plans to issue 30 billion yuan of 91 - day book - entry discount treasury bonds on August 20 [4] Chart Analysis - Stock Index Futures: The report presents the historical trends and basis trends of IH, IF, IM, and IC contracts [6][7][9] - Treasury Bond Futures: It shows the historical trends, basis trends, and cross - period spread trends of TS, TF, T, and TL contracts, as well as the yields of treasury bonds [12][15][16] - Exchange Rates: The report includes the historical trends of the US dollar - RMB, euro - RMB exchange rates, forward exchange rates, and other exchange rate - related data [20][21][22]