镍与不锈钢日评：“反内卷”情绪变化快、波动大-20250820

Group 1: Report Title and Date - The report is titled "Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250820: 'Anti-Involution' Emotions Change Rapidly and Fluctuate Widely" [1] Group 2: Nickel Futures Market Price and Volume - On August 19, 2025, the closing prices of Shanghai nickel futures contracts showed various changes compared to the previous day. For example, the futures near - month contract closed at 120,330 yuan/ton (-10 yuan), and the trading volume of the active contract was 63,677 hands (-14,462 hands), with an open interest of 55,967 hands (-6,540 hands) [2] Spreads and Basis - The spreads between different - month nickel futures contracts and the basis between spot and futures also changed. For instance, the spread between Shanghai nickel near - month and continuous - one contracts was - 120 yuan/ton, and the basis between SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price and the active contract was 1,320 yuan/ton (+10 yuan) [2] Inventory - The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory decreased, while the LME nickel inventory also decreased, but the social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory remained flat [2] Group 3: Nickel Spot Market - The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. Nickel ore prices remained flat, with a decrease in the arrival volume of nickel ore at ports last week and an increase in port inventory. Nickel - iron plants' loss margin narrowed, with a decrease in domestic production in August and an increase in Indonesian production, leading to an accumulation of nickel - iron inventory. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in August, and export profitability expanded [2] Group 4: Nickel Demand - On the demand side, the production of ternary materials increased, stainless - steel plants' production increased, and the demand for alloys and electroplating remained stable [2] Group 5: Stainless Steel Futures Market Price and Volume - On August 19, 2025, the stainless - steel main contract decreased in price with an increase in trading volume. The trading volume was 134,082 hands (+12,317 hands), and the open interest was 133,538 hands (-862 hands) [2] Spreads and Basis - The spreads between different - month stainless - steel futures contracts and the basis between spot and futures also changed. The basis between 304/2B coil - trimmed (Wuxi) average price and the active contract was 125 yuan (+600 yuan) [2] Inventory - The Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless - steel inventory increased, and the 300 - series social inventory last week was 61,750 tons (-11,600 tons) [2] Group 6: Stainless Steel Spot Market - The spot market trading was weak, and the basis premium widened. In terms of supply, stainless - steel production increased in August. On the demand side, terminal demand was weak. In terms of cost, the price of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome increased [2] Group 7: Industry News - The second - phase benchmark nickel price (IEMA) in August 2025 determined by the Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry (ESDM) decreased slightly to $15,012.67 per thousand metric tons, slightly lower than the first - phase price of $15,028.33 per thousand metric tons [2] Group 8: Investment Strategy Nickel - Given that the nickel fundamentals are loose and the Fed's interest - rate cut expectations are volatile, it is expected that the nickel price will fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Stainless Steel - Currently, the impact of macro - sentiment is relatively large. Although the fundamentals are loose, it will take time for the price to return to the fundamentals, and there is cost support. It is expected that the price will still fluctuate with the macro - environment. It is recommended to wait and see [2]