Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints The report provides a comprehensive analysis of various commodity futures markets, including precious metals, base metals, black industries, agricultural products, and energy chemicals. It offers market performance, fundamental analysis, and trading strategies for each sector, guiding investors to make decisions based on different market conditions. Summary by Categories Precious Metals - Gold: On Tuesday, precious metals declined. London gold dropped 0.52% to $3315 per ounce. The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, and it is recommended to go long on gold. Due to rumors of canceling export tax - rebates for photovoltaic modules, silver exports may increase, and it is advised to wait and see [1]. - Silver: The iShares silver ETF holdings decreased by 17 tons to 15339 tons. The inventory of silver in some regions changed, and it is recommended to wait and see due to potential export demand increase [1]. Base Metals - Copper: The copper price oscillated weakly. Due to concerns about Powell's hawkish speech and overall market risk - appetite decline, the short - term driving factors are unclear, and it is recommended to wait and see [2]. - Aluminum: The electrolytic aluminum contract price fell. With supply increasing and demand slightly improving as the peak season approaches, it is recommended to go long at low prices [2]. - Alumina: The alumina contract price declined. With increasing production capacity and surplus pressure, the price is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is advisable to sell call options if holding spot [2]. - Zinc: The zinc 2509 contract price dropped. Supply increased significantly, and it is in the consumption off - season. It is recommended to short at high prices [3]. - Lead: The lead 2509 contract price rose slightly. The supply and demand situation is complex, and it is recommended to trade within a range [3]. - Industrial Silicon: The industrial silicon price oscillated. The supply increased slightly, and the demand marginally improved. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to Xinjiang's production plan [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: The lithium carbonate contract price fell. Supply may be in short - supply from August to October, and demand is in the peak season. It is recommended to go long with a small position at low prices [3]. - Polycrystalline Silicon: The polycrystalline silicon price oscillated. The supply may increase, and the demand is affected by the off - season. It is recommended to wait and see, paying attention to policy implementation [4]. - Tin: The tin price oscillated strongly. Considering supply and demand and inventory, it is recommended to trade with an interval - oscillation mindset [4]. Black Industry - Rebar: The rebar contract price declined. The building material inventory increased, and the supply - demand is neutral - weak. It is recommended to take profit on the 10/1 reverse spread and wait and see [5]. - Iron Ore: The iron ore contract price decreased. The supply and demand are neutral - strong but marginally weakening. It is recommended to wait and see [5]. - Coking Coal: The coking coal contract price dropped. The supply is relatively loose but improving. It is recommended to hold previous short positions [5][6]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The CBOT soybean price continued to fall. The supply and demand situation is complex, and the domestic soybean market is affected by international factors. The short - term international market oscillates, and the domestic market follows the international cost [6]. - Corn: The corn 2511 contract was weak. Due to factors such as wheat substitution and increased imports, the price is expected to decline. The futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - Sugar: The Zhengzhou sugar 01 contract price fell. Considering international and domestic supply and demand, it is recommended to short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - Cotton: The cotton price declined. Considering international and domestic supply and demand, it is recommended to wait and see and trade within the 13800 - 14200 yuan/ton range [6]. - Palm Oil: The Malaysian palm oil price dropped. The supply and demand are both increasing, and it is recommended to close long positions in the short - term and pay attention to production and policies [6][7]. - Eggs: The egg 2510 contract was weak. With sufficient supply and potential demand increase, the futures price is expected to decline [7]. - Hogs: The hog 2511 contract oscillated narrowly. The supply is sufficient, and it is recommended to expect the futures price to oscillate strongly at the end of the month [7]. - Apples: The apple price oscillated. The early - maturing apple price fluctuated, and it is recommended to wait and see [7]. Energy Chemicals - LLDPE: The LLDPE contract price slightly declined. Supply is increasing, and demand is improving. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [8]. - PVC: The PVC V01 contract price fell. With potential export tariffs and increasing supply, the driving factors are unclear, and it is recommended to wait and see [8][9]. - PTA: The PX price is at a high level, and the PTA price is at a low level. PX is recommended to be long - allocated, and PTA can be shorted for processing fees or far - month contracts at high prices [9]. - Rubber: The rubber price fluctuated. With inventory reduction and strong raw material support, it is recommended to go long at low prices after a pull - back [9]. - Glass: The glass FG01 contract price declined. With weak supply - demand and inventory accumulation, it is recommended to wait and see [9]. - PP: The PP contract price slightly decreased. Supply is increasing, and demand is improving with the approaching peak season. In the short - term, it is expected to oscillate weakly, and it is recommended to short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [9]. - MEG: The MEG supply increased, and the inventory is at a low level. The supply - demand is in a tight balance, and it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - EB: The EB contract price slightly declined. With potential supply increase and high downstream inventory, it is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and short far - month contracts at high prices in the long - term [10]. - Soda Ash: The SA01 contract price fell. With high supply and inventory, it is recommended to wait and see due to potential production reduction [10].
商品期货早班车-20250820
Zhao Shang Qi Huo·2025-08-20 02:43