黑色商品日报（2025年8月20日）-20250820

Report Investment Rating - No specific industry investment rating provided in the report Core View - The report analyzes the market conditions of various black commodities on August 20, 2025. It provides short - term outlooks for steel, iron ore, coking coal, coke, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, with most expected to show weak or volatile trends due to factors such as supply - demand imbalances, production changes, and market sentiment [1][3] Summary by Section Research View - Steel: The rebar futures price fell, with the 2510 contract closing at 3126 yuan/ton, down 0.92%. Spot prices also declined, and trading volume decreased. Rebar has been accumulating inventory above the seasonal norm, and weak credit and investment data in July have weakened the supply - demand fundamentals. Some Tangshan steel mills received short - term production restriction notices, but production decline was limited. Meanwhile, some enterprises in the Beijing - Tianjin - Hebei region received work - stoppage notices, further reducing demand. The short - term outlook is for a weak and volatile trend [1] - Iron Ore: The main contract i2601 price dropped to 768 yuan/ton, down 0.13%. Australian shipments were stable with a slight increase, and Brazilian shipments increased significantly. The global iron ore shipment volume rose. Iron ore demand, measured by hot metal production, fluctuated slightly at 240.66 tons. Both port and steel mill inventories increased. The short - term price is expected to be range - bound [1] - Coking Coal: The coking coal futures price rose, with the 2601 contract closing at 1194.5 yuan/ton, up 0.59%. Some domestic mines resumed production, and downstream procurement slowed. However, hot metal production remained high, and coking enterprises' profits improved, leading to high production enthusiasm. The short - term outlook is for a volatile trend [1] - Coke: The coke futures price increased, with the 2601 contract closing at 1708.5 yuan/ton, up 0.38%. Coking enterprises' production profits continued to improve, and they were highly motivated to produce. Steel mills' demand for coke remained stable, but low steel prices squeezed steel mill profits, making some downstream parties cautious about coke price increases. The short - term trend is expected to be volatile [1] - Manganese Silicon: The manganese silicon futures price weakened, with the main contract closing at 5842 yuan/ton, down 2.92%. The overall black sector was weak, and alloy prices led the decline. Production increased due to improved profits, while demand remained low, and cost support was weak. The short - term outlook is for wide - range volatility [1][3] - Ferrosilicon: The ferrosilicon futures price also weakened, with the main contract closing at 5678 yuan/ton, down 3.53%. The black sector was weak, and alloy prices led the decline. Downstream production restriction expectations limited demand, while supply increased significantly. The short - term trend is expected to be wide - range volatile [3] Daily Data Monitoring - Contract Spreads and Basis: The report provides the latest contract spreads, basis, and spot prices for various commodities such as rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon, along with their daily changes [4] - Profit and Price Ratios: It also presents data on rebar's disk profit, long - process profit, short - process profit, and various price ratios such as the hot - rolled coil to rebar ratio, rebar to iron ore ratio, etc., along with their daily changes [4] Chart Analysis - Main Contract Prices: The report includes historical price charts of the main contracts for rebar, hot - rolled coil, iron ore, coke, coking coal, manganese silicon, and ferrosilicon from 2020 to 2025 [5][7][9] - Main Contract Basis: It shows historical basis charts for these commodities, which help analyze the relationship between futures and spot prices [18][19] - Inter - period Contract Spreads: The report provides historical inter - period contract spread charts for different commodities, which are useful for analyzing price differences between different contract periods [26][28] - Inter - commodity Contract Spreads: It includes charts of inter - commodity contract spreads such as the hot - rolled coil to rebar ratio, rebar to iron ore ratio, etc., to analyze the relative price relationships between different commodities [41][42] - Rebar Profits: The report presents historical profit charts for rebar, including disk profit, long - process profit, and short - process profit, to analyze rebar's profitability [45][47] Black Research Team Member Introduction - The report introduces the members of the black research team, including their positions, work experience, and professional qualifications [53][54]