国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：贵金属及基本金属-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views of the Report - Gold: PPI exceeding expectations dampens expectations of interest rate cuts [2][4] - Silver: Experiences a slight decline [2][4] - Copper: The rise of the US dollar puts pressure on prices [2][9] - Zinc: Shows a slight drop [2][12] - Lead: A significant increase in overseas inventories puts pressure on prices [2][15] - Tin: Trades within a range [2][18] - Aluminum: Trades within a range; Alumina: Shifts downward; Cast aluminum alloy: Follows the trend of electrolytic aluminum [2][22] - Nickel: Narrow - range fluctuations based on fundamental logic, with caution for news - related risks [2][25] - Stainless steel: The steel price fluctuates due to the game between macro expectations and reality [2][25] 3. Summaries by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Fundamental Data: For gold, the closing prices of Shanghai Gold 2510, Gold T + D, and Comex Gold 2510 all declined, with daily declines of - 0.33%, - 0.31%, and - 0.57% respectively. For silver, the closing prices of Shanghai Silver 2510 and Silver T + D also decreased, with daily declines of - 0.77% and - 0.48% respectively. There were also changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and spreads [5]. - Trend Intensity: Gold trend intensity is - 1, and silver trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [7]. Copper - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Copper main contract decreased by - 0.05%, and the London Copper 3M electronic disk decreased by - 0.69%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and spreads [9]. - Macro and Industry News: The US Department of Commerce included 407 types of steel and aluminum derivative products in the tariff list. The meeting locations for the US, Russia, and Ukraine are being considered, and Trump mentioned that Ukraine may need to make territorial concessions. PT Smelting's oxygen - making equipment malfunction extended the maintenance period, and Codelco restarted the smelter at the El Teniente copper mine. Glencore applied to include two copper mine projects in Argentina in the investment incentive plan [9][11]. - Trend Intensity: Copper trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [11]. Zinc - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Zinc main contract decreased by - 0.69%, and the London Zinc 3M electronic disk decreased by - 0.45%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, spreads, and inventories [12]. - News: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments aimed to standardize the photovoltaic industry competition order [13]. - Trend Intensity: Zinc trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [13]. Lead - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Lead main contract increased by 0.30%, and the London Lead 3M electronic disk decreased by - 0.03%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, spreads, and inventories [15]. - News: The US Department of Commerce included 407 types of steel and aluminum derivative products in the tariff list, and the meeting locations for the US, Russia, and Ukraine are being considered [16]. - Trend Intensity: Lead trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [16]. Tin - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Tin main contract increased by 0.40%, and the London Tin 3M electronic disk increased by 0.30%. There were changes in trading volume, positions, inventories, and spreads [19]. - Macro and Industry News: There were multiple news events including diplomatic meetings and corporate actions [19][20]. - Trend Intensity: Tin trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish outlook [21]. Aluminum, Alumina, and Cast Aluminum Alloy - Fundamental Data: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract decreased, and there were changes in trading volume, positions, spreads, and inventories for aluminum, alumina, and cast aluminum alloy. There were also changes in related costs, profits, and prices in the industrial chain [22]. - Comprehensive News: The US Department of Commerce included 407 types of steel and aluminum derivative products in the tariff list [24]. - Trend Intensity: Aluminum trend intensity is 0, alumina trend intensity is - 1, and aluminum alloy trend intensity is 0 [24]. Nickel and Stainless Steel - Fundamental Data: There were changes in the closing prices, trading volumes, positions, and various industry - related data for nickel and stainless steel [25]. - Macro and Industry News: There were multiple news events related to the nickel and stainless - steel industries, including production suspensions, regulatory requirements, and government actions [25][26][27][28][29]. - Trend Intensity: Nickel trend intensity is 0, and stainless steel trend intensity is 0, indicating a neutral outlook [30].