镍与不锈钢日评：”反内卷“情绪变化快、波动大-20250820

Report Summary - Title of the Report: Nickel and Stainless Steel Daily Review 20250820: "Anti-Involution" Emotions Change Rapidly and Are Highly Volatile [1] - Report Date: August 20, 2025 - Investment Rating: Not provided - Core Viewpoints - Nickel: On August 19, the main nickel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange fluctuated within a range. The spot market had weak trading volume, and the basis premium widened. The nickel market's fundamentals are loose, and with the repeated expectations of the Fed's interest rate cuts, nickel prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2]. - Stainless Steel: On August 19, the main stainless - steel contract declined on high trading volume. The spot market had weak trading volume, and the basis premium widened. The current macro - sentiment has a relatively large impact. Although the fundamentals are loose, it will take time for prices to return to the fundamentals and there is cost support. Prices are expected to fluctuate following the macro - situation. It is recommended to take a wait - and - see approach [2]. Market Data Summary Nickel Market - Futures Prices: Most of the Shanghai nickel futures contracts' closing prices decreased on August 19 compared to the previous day. For example, the closing price of the near - month contract was 120,330 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month nickel's closing price (electronic and场内盘) also decreased, with a decline of 145 dollars [2]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of Shanghai nickel futures was 63,677 hands, a decrease of 14,462 hands, and the open interest was 62,507 hands, a decrease of 6,540 hands. The trading volume of LME 3 - month nickel was 6,229 hands, an increase of 1,355 hands [2]. - Spreads and Basis: The spreads between different - month nickel futures contracts changed. The basis between the SMM 1 electrolytic nickel average price and the active nickel futures contract increased by 10 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: The inventory of Shanghai nickel futures decreased, the LME nickel inventory decreased, the social inventory increased, and the bonded - area inventory remained flat [2]. Stainless - Steel Market - Futures Prices: The main stainless - steel contract on the Shanghai Futures Exchange declined on high trading volume. The trading volume was 134,082 hands, an increase of 12,317 hands, and the open interest was 133,538 hands, a decrease of 862 hands [2]. - Spreads and Basis: The basis between the 304/2B coil - cut edge (Wuxi) average price and the active stainless - steel futures contract increased by 600 yuan/ton [2]. - Inventory: The Shanghai Futures Exchange stainless - steel inventory increased, and the 300 - series social inventory decreased by 11,600 tons last week [2]. Supply and Demand Analysis Nickel - Supply: Nickel ore prices remained flat. The arrival volume of nickel ore at ports decreased last week, and port inventories increased. Nickel - iron plants' losses narrowed, domestic production in August decreased, and Indonesian production increased, leading to an accumulation of nickel - iron. Domestic electrolytic nickel production increased in August, and export profits expanded [2]. - Demand: Ternary production increased, stainless - steel plants' production increased, and the demand for alloys and electroplating was stable [2]. Stainless Steel - Supply: Stainless - steel production in August increased [2]. - Demand: Terminal demand was weak [2]. - Cost: The price of high - nickel pig iron and high - carbon ferrochrome increased [2].