有色商品日报-20250820
Guang Da Qi Huo·2025-08-20 03:12
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Copper: Overnight copper prices fluctuated weakly, and the domestic spot import window opened. The market is cautious ahead of the Jackson Hole "Global Central Bank Annual Meeting" and Powell's speech. Domestically, measures are proposed to stabilize the real - estate market. LME copper inventory decreased by 450 tons, Comex inventory increased by 792 tons, SHFE copper warehouse receipts remained stable, and BC copper decreased by 5571 tons. With the end of the seasonal off - season approaching, downstream orders are expected to pick up. Copper prices are in a narrow - range fluctuation, with a balance between bulls and bears waiting for external factors to break the current shock [1]. - Aluminum: Alumina, Shanghai aluminum, and aluminum alloy all fluctuated weakly. Alumina's fundamental support weakened, but short - term deep decline is restricted. As the "Golden September" peak season approaches, the pressure from short - sellers may ease. Aluminum ingot casting volume increased, and some terminal sectors are stocking up in advance, resulting in an irregular inventory build - up. Electrolytic aluminum is in a "time - for - space" rhythm, and inventory trends and early peak - season start signals need to be tracked [1][2]. - Nickel: Overnight, LME nickel fell 0.73% and Shanghai nickel fell 0.23%. LME inventory decreased by 1086 tons, and domestic SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 210 tons. The LME 0 - 3 month premium remained negative, and the imported nickel premium was stable. Nickel ore premiums in Indonesia slightly declined. Stainless - steel raw material prices were divided, and the stainless - steel social inventory decreased by 2.48% week - on - week. The overall fundamentals of nickel remained stable, showing a fluctuating trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Daily Data Monitoring - Copper: The price of flat - water copper decreased by 175 yuan/ton, and the flat - water copper premium decreased by 25 yuan/ton. The price of 1 bright scrap copper in Guangdong decreased by 100 yuan/ton. LME copper inventory decreased by 450 tons, COMEX inventory increased by 4 tons, and the total domestic + bonded area social inventory decreased by 0.1 million tons [3]. - Aluminum: The Wuxi and Nanhai aluminum prices increased by 50 yuan/ton. The price difference between Nanhai and Wuxi remained unchanged, and the spot premium was stable. LME aluminum inventory remained unchanged, SHFE warehouse receipts decreased by 25 tons, and the total inventory increased by 7039 tons. The alumina social inventory increased by 0.4 million tons [4]. - Nickel: The price of Jinchuan nickel increased by 100 yuan/ton, and the premium of Jinchuan nickel over Wuxi increased by 250 yuan/ton. LME nickel inventory decreased by 1086 tons, SHFE nickel warehouse receipts decreased by 210 tons, and the total nickel inventory increased by 768 tons. The stainless - steel warehouse receipts decreased by 253 tons [4]. - Zinc: The main contract settlement price decreased by 0.6%, and the LME S3 price remained unchanged. The SHFE - LME ratio decreased. The SMM 0 and 1 spot prices decreased by 100 yuan/ton. The domestic and imported zinc spot premiums remained unchanged. LME zinc inventory decreased by 3650 tons, and the social inventory increased by 0.49 million tons [5]. - Tin: The main contract settlement price decreased by 0.1%, and the LME S3 price decreased by 2.1%. The SHFE - LME ratio increased. The SMM spot price decreased by 600 yuan/ton. The 60% and 40% tin concentrate prices decreased by 3500 yuan/ton. LME tin inventory decreased by 25 tons, and SHFE tin inventory decreased by 13 tons [5]. 3.2 Chart Analysis - 3.2.1 Spot Premium: Charts show the historical trends of spot premiums for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [7][9][12]. - 3.2.2 SHFE Near - Far Month Spread: Charts display the historical trends of the near - far month spreads for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2020 - 2025 [15][18][21]. - 3.2.3 LME Inventory: Charts present the historical trends of LME inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [23][25][27]. - 3.2.4 SHFE Inventory: Charts show the historical trends of SHFE inventories for copper, aluminum, nickel, zinc, lead, and tin from 2019 - 2025 [30][32][34]. - 3.2.5 Social Inventory: Charts display the historical trends of social inventories for copper (including bonded areas), aluminum, nickel, zinc, stainless - steel, and 300 - series from 2019 - 2025 [36][38][40]. - 3.2.6 Smelting Profit: Charts present the historical trends of copper concentrate index, rough copper processing fee, aluminum smelting profit, nickel - iron smelting cost, zinc smelting profit, and stainless - steel 304 smelting profit rate from 2019 - 2025 [43][45][47]. 3.3 Team Introduction - Zhan Dapeng, a master of science, is the director of non - ferrous research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, a senior researcher of precious metals, a gold intermediate investment analyst, and an outstanding metal analyst of the Shanghai Futures Exchange. He has over a decade of commodity research experience, serves many leading spot enterprises, and has published dozens of professional articles. His team has won multiple industry awards [50]. - Wang Heng, a master of finance from the University of Adelaide in Australia, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on aluminum and silicon research [50]. - Zhu Xi, a master of science from the University of Warwick in the UK, is a non - ferrous researcher at Everbright Futures Research Institute, mainly focusing on lithium and nickel research [51].