光大期货煤化工商品日报-20250820

1. Report's Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Urea: The domestic urea daily production continues to rise, but the domestic demand is still insufficient, and the fundamental driving force of urea is limited. The easing of China - India relations brings expectations of export growth. The short - term urea futures market will continue to be in a relatively strong state, but the upside is limited due to the price - stabilizing policy. It is not recommended to chase the rise blindly. Attention should be paid to the Indian tender results, China's participation in the supply, export policy dynamics, this week's inventory data, and spot trading conditions [1]. - Soda Ash: The supply level of soda ash is still high, and the demand side has not improved significantly. The fundamental situation of soda ash remains weak, and there is a lack of new driving forces in the futures market. It is expected that the short - term futures price will fluctuate weakly. Attention should be paid to whether environmental protection restrictions will disrupt the supply side, the overall trend of the commodity market, and changes in macro - sentiment [1]. - Glass: The supply and demand contradiction of glass still exists, and there are no favorable factors in the market. The short - term downstream may stock up raw sheets before the environmental protection restrictions in early September, but the subsequent downstream processing enterprises may be affected by environmental protection restrictions, and the rigid demand for glass and enterprise shipments will be further suppressed. It is expected that the weak state of the glass futures price will continue. Attention should be paid to the impact of environmental protection events on both supply and demand sides, glass spot trading conditions, the overall sentiment of the commodity market, and changes in macro - sentiment [1]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Market Information Urea - On August 19, the urea futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange were 3,573, unchanged from the previous trading day, with 50 valid forecasts. - On August 19, the daily output of the urea industry was 198,400 tons, an increase of 2,000 tons from the previous working day and an increase of 30,100 tons from the same period last year. The operating rate on this day was 85.70%, a 9.39% increase from 76.31% in the same period last year. - On August 19, the spot prices of small - particle urea in various domestic regions were as follows: Shandong 1,730 yuan/ton (unchanged), Henan 1,740 yuan/ton (+10), Hebei 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged), Anhui 1,750 yuan/ton (unchanged), Jiangsu 1,740 yuan/ton (unchanged), and Shanxi 1,610 yuan/ton (unchanged) [4]. Soda Ash & Glass - On August 19, the number of soda ash futures warehouse receipts on the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange was 11,020, an increase of 828 from the previous trading day, with 851 valid forecasts; the number of glass futures warehouse receipts was 2,438, unchanged from the previous trading day. - On August 19, the spot prices of soda ash in various regions were as follows: In North China, light soda ash was 1,250 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,350 yuan/ton; in Central China, light soda ash was 1,180 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in East China, light soda ash was 1,150 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton; in South China, light soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,450 yuan/ton; in Southwest China, light soda ash was 1,300 yuan/ton, and heavy soda ash was 1,400 yuan/ton; in Northwest China, light soda ash was 1,020 yuan/ton (-30), and heavy soda ash was 1,020 yuan/ton (-30). - On August 19, the operating rate of the soda ash industry was 88.89%, down from 90.58% on the previous working day. - On August 19, the average price of the float glass market was 1,153 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day; the daily output of the industry was 159,600 tons, unchanged from the previous day [6][7]. Chart Analysis - The report presents multiple charts, including those of urea basis, soda ash basis, urea and soda ash main contract trading volume and open interest, urea 2601 - 2509 spread, soda ash 2601 - 2509 spread, urea and soda ash spot price trends, urea - methanol futures spread, and glass - soda ash futures spread. All chart data sources are iFind and the Research Institute of Everbright Futures [9][15][21]. Research Team Introduction - The resource product research team of Everbright Futures includes Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource product research at the Research Institute of Everbright Futures, who focuses on the sugar industry; Zhang Linglu, an analyst responsible for research on futures varieties such as urea, soda ash, and glass; and Sun Chengzhen, an analyst mainly engaged in fundamental research and data analysis of varieties such as cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloys [23].