农产品日报（2025年8月20日）-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. However, it gives specific investment ratings for different agricultural product varieties: - Corn: Oscillating downward [1] - Soybean Meal: Rising [1] - Edible Oils: Rising [1] - Eggs: Oscillating downward [1] - Pork: Oscillating [2] 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Corn prices are affected by new grain supply pressure and market sentiment, with the 11 - month contract leading the decline and the 1 - month contract potentially rebounding after a sharp drop [1]. - Soybean meal prices are supported by concerns over long - term supply, and the strategy is to maintain a long - only mindset and participate in monthly positive spreads [1]. - Edible oils are in a bullish trend, but short - term fluctuations are affected by external market performance and inventory changes. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1]. - Egg prices are currently weak, but there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in the future, although the peak is likely to be lower than last year [1]. - Pork prices are under supply pressure, but there is a possibility of a low - level rebound with the recovery of demand and the anti - involution trend [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Views - Corn: On Tuesday, corn prices decreased with increased positions. The 11 - month contract led the decline, and the 1 - month contract adjusted accordingly. Northeast corn prices were weak, while North China prices were strong over the weekend. Shandong Shouguang's deep - processing corn purchase price rose to 2490 yuan/ton on August 18, up 40 yuan/ton from last Friday. The market is waiting for new grain, and the futures price is expected to oscillate weakly [1]. - Soybean Meal: On Tuesday, CBOT soybeans fell due to profit - taking, but the reduced autumn harvest forecast provided support. US soybean meal rose, and domestic protein meal was strong during the day but fell at night. The import cost was slightly stronger, and the strategy is to maintain a long - only mindset and participate in monthly positive spreads [1]. - Edible Oils: On Tuesday, BMD palm oil closed lower due to profit - taking and weak crude oil. Domestic edible oils were strong during the day but fell at night, led by palm oil. The inventory of the three major domestic vegetable oils increased by 0.98 tons compared to last week. The strategy is to participate in short - term long positions and sell put options [1]. - Eggs: On Monday, egg futures continued to weaken. The main 2510 contract fell 2.17% to 3113 yuan/500 kg, and the near - month 2509 contract fell 2.7%. The spot price increased slightly. Terminal consumption was stable, and there is a possibility of a seasonal rebound in the future [1]. - Pork: On Monday, the main 2511 contract of pork futures weakened in the afternoon, closing down 0.9% at 13820 yuan/ton. The spot price decreased slightly. Supply pressure persists, but there is a possibility of a low - level rebound with demand recovery [2]. Market Information - Brazil's competition management agency CADE plans to investigate the signatories of the "Soybean Moratorium Plan," and the Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) will appeal [2]. - ProFarmer's crop inspection shows that the expected corn yield per acre in Ohio in 2025 is 185.69 bushels, and in South Dakota is 174.18 bushels. The expected average number of soybean pods in Ohio is 1287.28, and in South Dakota is 1188.45 [3]. - The average soybean crushing rate of domestic oil mills reached 64.64% as of August 16, an increase of 2.08% from last week. The total soybean crushing volume was 241.68 tons, an increase of 7.79 tons from last week. The expected processing volume this week is 247 tons, with a crushing rate of 66.07% [4]. - The soybean crushing profit in Mato Grosso from August 11 - 15 was 392.46 reais/ton, slightly lower than the previous week. The soybean meal price was 1525.17 reais/ton, and the soybean oil price was 6166.27 reais/ton [4]. Variety Spreads - Contract Spreads: The report provides charts of 1 - 5 spreads for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pork [6][7][11][15] - Contract Basis: The report provides charts of the basis for various agricultural products, including corn, corn starch, soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, palm oil, eggs, and pork [14][17][19][24]