光大期货软商品日报-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Cotton: The ICE U.S. cotton dropped 0.41% to 67.53 cents per pound on Tuesday, and CF601 decreased 0.11% to 14,100 yuan per ton. The main - contract positions increased by 2,482 lots to 488,500 lots. The cotton arrival price in Xinjiang dropped by 2 yuan to 1,500 yuan per ton, while the China Cotton Price Index (Grade 3128B) rose by 9 yuan to 15,243 yuan per ton. Internationally, the macro - level is the focus, and both the U.S. dollar index and U.S. cotton prices are oscillating. Fundamentally, the supply - demand pattern of U.S. cotton in the new year has a marginal narrowing, with a year - on - year decrease in the inventory - to - sales ratio, but the driving force is limited. Domestically, the market sentiment is warm, but the correlation between the Shanghai Composite Index and commodity or Zhengzhou cotton indices is not strong, so it provides support rather than an upward drive. New cotton is likely to have a good harvest, and the overall domestic supply - demand pattern has little contradiction, with a slightly lower expected inventory - to - sales ratio. In July, China imported 50,000 tons of cotton, a slight monthly increase but still at a low level, and the import volume in the new year is expected to be low. Overall, Zhengzhou cotton has support at the bottom, but needs more upward drive with the approaching of new cotton harvest and listing, and is expected to be in a firm oscillation in the short term [1]. - Sugar: Brazil exported 1.8832 million tons of sugar and molasses in the first two weeks of August, with a daily average of 171,200 tons. In August 2024, Brazil's sugar export volume was 3.9208 million tons, with a daily average of 178,200 tons. The spot quotes of Guangxi and Yunnan sugar - making groups remained stable, and most processing sugar mills' quotes were also stable, with only a few down 20 yuan. The raw sugar futures price fluctuated narrowly. Brazil is in the peak production period, with poor - quality sugar and a high sugar - making ratio maintaining production. Domestically, the quotes are flat without new drivers, and the July import data has been digested. Future import situations in the following months need attention, and the futures price is expected to continue narrow - range oscillation [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Research Viewpoints - Cotton: The daily performance of ICE U.S. cotton, CF601, and the main - contract positions are presented. The prices of cotton in Xinjiang and the China Cotton Price Index are given. The international market is affected by macro factors, and the domestic market has a warm sentiment but weak correlation with the stock index. New cotton is likely to have a good harvest, and the supply - demand pattern is relatively stable. The short - term view is firm oscillation [1]. - Sugar: The export data of Brazil in August and the spot quotes of domestic sugar - making groups and processing sugar mills are provided. The raw sugar futures price has narrow - range fluctuations, and the domestic market lacks new drivers, with the futures price expected to oscillate narrowly [1]. Daily Data Monitoring - Cotton: The 9 - 1 contract spread is - 280, up 15; the main - contract basis is 1,143, up 34. The spot prices in Xinjiang, the whole country, and Nanning are given [2]. - Sugar: The 9 - 1 contract spread is 60, down 11; the main - contract basis is 339, up 11 [2]. Market Information - Cotton: On August 19, the cotton futures warehouse receipts decreased by 166 to 7,596, with 249 valid forecasts. The arrival prices in different regions of China are provided. The yarn and short - fiber cloth comprehensive loads remained unchanged, while the inventories decreased slightly [4]. - Sugar: On August 19, the spot prices in Nanning and Liuzhou remained unchanged. The sugar futures warehouse receipts decreased by 445 to 16,486, with 1 valid forecast [4][5]. Chart Analysis - Cotton: Multiple charts are presented, including the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, 1% tariff quota internal - external spread, warehouse receipts and valid forecasts, and the China Cotton Price Index of cotton [8][11][13]. - Sugar: Charts such as the closing price, basis, 9 - 1 spread, and warehouse receipts and valid forecasts of sugar are shown [16][19]. Research Team Personnel Introduction - Zhang Xiaojin, the director of resource research at Everbright Futures Research Institute, focuses on the sugar industry, and has won many analyst awards [21]. - Zhang Linglu, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is responsible for research on urea, soda ash, and glass futures, and has won many honors [22]. - Sun Chengzhen, an analyst at Everbright Futures Research Institute, is engaged in fundamental research on cotton, cotton yarn, and ferroalloy, and won the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange's textile senior analyst title in 2024 [23].