丙烯产业风险管理日报-20250820

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Views - The overall market remains loose. In the Shandong market, the resumption of production at Shandong Tianhong and Zibo Xintai, along with the downstream PO maintenance at Wanhua Penglai, has increased the supply of propylene, weakening the spot price. Other markets have shown little change [3]. - There are maintenance plans for Wanhua Penglai's 900,000 - ton PDH and Jinneng's 900,000 - ton PDH in the second half of the month, and the PP line at Jingbo is expected to resume production in late August, narrowing the supply - demand gap in the Shandong market [4]. - The cost of crude oil has been falling for several days, and the price of external propane is under pressure at a high export level [4]. Summary by Related Catalogs Propylene Hedging Strategy - Inventory Management: When the finished - product inventory is high and there are concerns about propylene price drops, for a long spot position, it is recommended to short - allocate propylene futures (PL2601) at high prices with a 50% hedging ratio in the range of 6600 - 6700 to lock in profits. Also, selling call options (PL2601C6800) with a 50% ratio in the range of 120 - 160 can collect premiums to reduce costs and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [2]. - Procurement Management: When the regular procurement inventory is low and procurement is based on orders (short spot position), it is recommended to buy propylene futures (PL2601) at low prices with a 25% hedging ratio in the range of 6250 - 6350 to lock in procurement costs. Selling put options (PL2601P6000) with a 25% ratio in the range of 50 - 60 can collect premiums to reduce procurement costs and lock in the purchase price if the propylene price drops [2]. Industry Data Upstream Prices - Brent crude closed at $65.42, down $0.47 from the previous day and $0.69 from the previous week; WTI crude closed at $62, down $0.58 from the previous day and $1.08 from the previous week [5]. - Other upstream prices such as MOPJ, NWE NAP, etc., also showed different degrees of change [5]. Mid - stream Prices - FOB South Korea remained at 745, unchanged from the previous day and up 2 from the previous week; FOB US was at 675.16, down 2.7558 from the previous day and the same from the previous week; CFR China remained at 775, unchanged from the previous day and down 3 from the previous week [5]. - Domestic mid - stream prices in regions like East China, Shandong, and Northeast also had corresponding changes [5]. Downstream Prices - Polypropylene powder was at 6870, unchanged from the previous day and down 60 from the previous week; polypropylene pellets were at 7000, down 25 from the previous day and the same from the previous week. Other downstream products also showed price fluctuations [5]. Profits - Main refinery profit was 832.62, down 106.23 from the previous record; MTO monomer profit was - 180.83, unchanged from the previous day and up 62.50 from the previous week. Different profit indicators in the mid - upstream and downstream showed various trends [5]. Price Spreads - PL01 - 02 was - 56, down 7 from the previous day and 3 from the previous week; PP01 - PL01 was 612, up 15 from the previous day and unchanged from the previous week. Different price spreads also had corresponding changes [5].