铜冠金源期货商品日报-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Views of the Report - Overseas markets are waiting for the US-Russia-Ukraine meeting and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. The overall risk appetite has declined marginally, and the US dollar index has rebounded, putting pressure on the metal market. The A-share market may be approaching an adjustment window, and the bond market is expected to start a repair行情 [2][3]. - Precious metals are expected to maintain a weak and volatile trend in the short term due to factors such as the strengthening of the US dollar index, the uncertainty of Powell's speech, and the easing of the Russia-Ukraine situation [4][5]. - Copper prices are expected to enter a weak and volatile phase in the short term due to factors such as the cooling of risk appetite, the rebound of the US dollar index, and the relatively sufficient supply of the copper industry [6][7]. - Aluminum prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust due to factors such as overseas news disturbances, the increase in supply expectations, and the continuation of the domestic seasonal off - season [8]. - Alumina prices are expected to fluctuate and adjust as the positive factors in the market have subsided, and the supply of imported bauxite is sufficient [9][10]. - Zinc prices are expected to maintain a weak trend with limited macro - micro support and the addition of short - selling funds [11][12]. - Lead prices are expected to operate weakly within a range due to the high inventory pressure of LME and the weak supply - demand pattern in China [13]. - Tin prices are expected to follow the London tin and fluctuate strongly in the short term, supported by factors such as the slow resumption of tin ore production and the strengthening of the LME monthly structure [14][15]. - Industrial silicon prices are expected to enter a weak and volatile phase in the short term due to the marginal relaxation of supply and the weak demand in the downstream [16][17]. - Lithium carbonate prices are expected to fluctuate widely. Although there is an upward possibility technically, attention should be paid to the impact of policy expectation corrections [18]. - Nickel prices are expected to continue to fluctuate within a range due to weak short - term macro - disturbances and no significant improvement in the industry [19]. - Crude oil prices are expected to operate weakly due to the cooling of geopolitical risks and the mismatch between OPEC+'s production increase plan and demand intensity [20]. - Soybean meal and rapeseed meal are expected to fluctuate. The precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas is lower than normal, and the Pro Farmer inspection results are initially better than expected [21][22]. - Palm oil is expected to fluctuate and adjust due to the cooling of the commodity market sentiment and the full trading of previous positive factors [23]. 3. Summary According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Macro - Overseas: The market is waiting for the US-Russia-Ukraine meeting and Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting. The overall risk appetite has declined marginally, the US dollar index has risen to 98.3, the 10Y US Treasury yield has fallen to 4.3%, and the US stock market has adjusted. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has eased, and gold, copper, and oil have all weakened [2]. - Domestic: The A - share market's upward momentum has slowed down after rising on Tuesday, and the trading volume has shrunk to 2.64 trillion. The market sentiment has cooled down marginally. The stock market maintains a high - volatility state. The bond market is expected to start a repair行情 [3]. 3.2 Precious Metals - On Tuesday, international precious metal futures prices generally closed down. COMEX gold futures fell 0.57% to $3358.90 per ounce, and COMEX silver futures fell 1.84% to $37.33 per ounce. The market is waiting for Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole Annual Meeting, and the uncertainty of the speech, the expansion of US tariffs, and the easing of the Russia - Ukraine situation have all affected the market's risk - aversion sentiment [4]. 3.3 Copper - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai copper fluctuated weakly, and LME copper fell below the $9700 level. The spot market trading was dull, and the downstream restocking willingness decreased. The LME inventory remained at 15.5 tons. The market is worried that the previous interest - rate cut expectations are too high, and the US economic situation is not suitable for a large - scale short - term interest - rate cut. The dollar index has rebounded, putting pressure on the metal market. In addition, Peru's copper production in June increased year - on - year [6]. 3.4 Aluminum - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum closed at 20545 yuan/ton, down 0.19%. LME aluminum closed at $2567.5 per ton, down 0.81%. The expansion of US steel and aluminum tariffs has increased concerns about overseas demand, and the expectation of increased Russian aluminum supply has risen. The domestic seasonal off - season continues, and the aluminum price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [8]. 3.5 Alumina - On Tuesday, the main contract of alumina futures closed at 3203 yuan/ton, down 2.08%. The positive factors in the alumina market have subsided. The import of bauxite in July increased month - on - month, and the inventory of alumina warehouse receipts has continued to rise, and the market is adjusting [9][10]. 3.6 Zinc - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai zinc fluctuated weakly, and LME zinc closed down. The downstream bargain - hunting increased, but the spot trading was still mainly among traders. A zinc project in Peru is under construction, and some zinc smelters in China have maintenance plans. The market risk appetite is cautious, and the zinc price is expected to maintain a weak trend [11][12]. 3.7 Lead - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai lead fluctuated strongly during the day and closed down at night. LME lead operated weakly. The LME has continuously made large - scale deliveries, and the high - inventory pressure has put pressure on lead prices. The domestic supply - demand pattern is weak, and the lead price is expected to operate weakly within a range [13]. 3.8 Tin - On Tuesday, the main contract of Shanghai tin fluctuated strongly during the day and traded sideways at night. LME tin closed up. The fundamental contradiction lies in the slow resumption of tin ore production and the repeated concerns about overseas liquidity. The LME inventory is in a downward trend, and the tin price is expected to follow LME tin and fluctuate strongly [14][15]. 3.9 Industrial Silicon - On Tuesday, the main contract of industrial silicon fluctuated narrowly. The supply side is marginally relaxed, and the downstream demand is weak. The social inventory has increased slightly, and the industrial silicon price is expected to operate weakly and fluctuate [16][17]. 3.10 Lithium Carbonate - On Tuesday, lithium carbonate fluctuated, and the spot price rose significantly. The market is still gambling on resource disturbances, but the bulls are relatively conservative. The actual trading volume is limited, and the lithium carbonate price is expected to fluctuate widely [18]. 3.11 Nickel - On Tuesday, nickel prices fluctuated weakly. The macro - disturbances are weak in the short term, and there is no significant improvement in the industry. The nickel price is expected to continue to fluctuate within a range [19]. 3.12 Crude Oil - On Tuesday, crude oil fluctuated weakly. The geopolitical risks have cooled down, and the market's concern about Russian oil sanctions has weakened. OPEC+'s production increase plan does not match the demand intensity, and the oil price is expected to operate weakly [20]. 3.13 Bean and Rapeseed Meal - On Tuesday, the 01 contract of soybean meal rose 6 to 3161 yuan/ton, and the 01 contract of rapeseed meal rose 14 to 2604 yuan/ton. The initial results of the Pro Farmer inspection are better than expected, but the precipitation in the US soybean - producing areas is lower than normal, and the soybean and rapeseed meal prices are expected to fluctuate [21][22]. 3.14 Palm Oil - On Tuesday, the 01 contract of palm oil rose 56 to 9640 yuan/ton. The Malaysian Palm Oil Council expects palm oil prices to remain above 4300 ringgit. The export demand for palm oil is good, but the commodity market sentiment has cooled down, and the palm oil price is expected to fluctuate and adjust [23]. 3.15 Metal Main Variety Transaction Data - The report provides the closing prices, price changes, price change percentages, total trading volumes, total open interests, and price units of various metal futures contracts such as SHFE copper, LME copper, SHFE aluminum, etc. on the previous trading day [24]. 3.16 Industry Data Perspective - The report provides detailed industry data such as the closing prices, inventory changes, spot premiums and discounts, and other data of copper, nickel, zinc, lead, aluminum, alumina, tin, gold, silver, and other metals on August 19 and August 18 [27][28][29][30][31].