CR Sanjiu(SZ:000999) Orient Securities·2025-08-20 03:48Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the company [5][8]. Core Views - The company's performance has been under pressure due to a decrease in the incidence of respiratory diseases and adjustments in retail channels, resulting in a revenue growth of 5.0% year-on-year for the first half of 2025 [11]. - The integration of Tianshili has significantly boosted the prescription drug business, which saw a revenue increase of 100.2% year-on-year, while the self-medication (CHC) business faced a decline of 17.9% [11]. - The company is expanding its R&D pipeline with multiple collaborations in cell therapy, metabolism, and oncology, including partnerships for innovative drug development [11]. Financial Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The earnings per share (EPS) forecasts for 2025-2027 are adjusted to 2.05, 2.26, and 2.49 yuan respectively, down from previous estimates of 2.99, 3.39, and 3.93 yuan [5]. - The target price is set at 45.10 yuan based on a 22x PE valuation for 2025, reflecting a potential upside from the current price of 30.27 yuan [5][8]. - Revenue projections for 2025-2027 are 30.515 billion, 33.707 billion, and 37.163 billion yuan, with respective growth rates of 10.5%, 10.5%, and 10.3% [7]. Key Financial Metrics - The company reported a net profit of 2.853 billion yuan in 2023, with a projected increase to 4.152 billion yuan by 2027, reflecting a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 10% [7]. - The gross margin is expected to stabilize around 52.5% in 2025, with net profit margins projected at 11.2% for the next few years [7]. - The company's price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio is forecasted to decrease from 17.7 in 2023 to 12.2 by 2027, indicating a potentially more attractive valuation over time [7].