LPG产业风险管理日报-20250820

Report Information - Report Name: LPG Industry Risk Management Daily Report [2] - Date: August 19, 2025 [3] - Analysts: Dai Yifan (Investment Consulting Certificate: Z0015428), Shen Weiwei (F03140197) [3] Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Views - The marginal improvement in demand is difficult to offset the suppression of warehouse receipts. As of August 19, the LPG warehouse receipts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange were 13,318 lots (+440) [4]. - On the demand side, there is a marginal improvement. The PDH sector is expected to operate at 75%-80% due to profit repair, which is a high level this year and seasonally. The MTBE sector is supported by exports, with the operating rate remaining at a phased high of around 65%. The alkylation oil operating rate has also slightly increased to around 50%, which is a seasonal high [5]. - On the cost side, the crude oil market has shifted to a sideways trend after consecutive days of decline, and demand will also weaken seasonally. The overseas propane market is also under pressure due to high exports. On the supply side, the domestic major refineries are operating at a high level, while the local refineries are gradually recovering from a low level. On the inventory side, the port inventory remains high due to high arrivals [6]. Content Summaries LPG Price and Volatility - The monthly price range forecast for LPG is 3,750 - 4,400. The current 20-day rolling volatility is 15.47%, and the historical percentage of the current volatility in the past three years is 5.99% [3]. LPG Hedging Strategies Inventory Management - For high inventory and concerns about price drops, sell PG2510 futures at a 50% hedging ratio when the price is between 4,400 - 4,500 to lock in profits and cover production costs. Also, sell PG2510C4500 call options at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 60 - 80 to collect premiums and lock in the selling price if the spot price rises [3]. Procurement Management - For low procurement inventory and the need to purchase based on orders, buy PG2509 futures at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 3,600 - 3,700 to lock in procurement costs. Also, sell PG2509P3600 put options at a 25% hedging ratio when the price is between 8 - 10 to collect premiums and lock in the spot purchase price if the PG price drops [3]. Industry Data Price Data - Brent crude oil closed at $65.42, down $0.47 from the previous day and $0.69 from a week ago. WTI crude oil closed at $62, down $0.58 from the previous day and $1.08 from a week ago. The LPG main contract closed at 3,852 yuan, up 1 yuan from the previous day and 26 yuan from a week ago [7]. Warehouse Receipts and Basis - The LPG warehouse receipts on the Dalian Commodity Exchange were 13,318 lots, an increase of 440 lots from the previous day and 344 lots from a week ago. The LPG basis was 488 yuan, down 21 yuan from the previous day and 46 yuan from a week ago [8]. Spread, Month Spread, and Ratio - Various spreads, month spreads, and ratios are provided in the report, including FEI - MOPJ M1, LPG - FEI, LPG08 - 09, MB/WTI, etc., with their respective daily and weekly changes [7][8]. Profit Data - The report provides data on various profit indicators, such as the LPG import profit, PDH profit, and Asian cracking profit, with their respective daily and weekly changes [8]. Freight Data - Freight rates from the Middle East to the Far East, the United States to Europe, and the US Gulf to the Far East are provided, along with their daily and weekly changes [8].