FICC日报：马士基9月第一周报价下修，关注其他船司价格跟随情况-20250820

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. Core Viewpoints - The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. It is advisable to short the October contract when the price is high. The 12 - month contract follows the pattern of peak and off - peak seasons, but the risk lies in whether the Suez Canal will reopen. The 10 - month contract should be mainly short - allocated, and attention should be paid to the downward slope of freight rates. The August contract has an uncertain delivery settlement price due to the continuous decline in freight rates [5][6][8]. Summary by Catalog 1. Market Analysis - Online Quotes: Different shipping companies have different price trends on the Shanghai - Rotterdam route. For example, Maersk's Week 36 price increased, while some other companies' prices remained stable or decreased. Maersk's PSS in the Far East - Nordic region dropped to $50/100 [1]. - Geopolitical Situation: Middle - Eastern media reported that Hamas agreed to a 60 - day cease - fire and release half of the detainees. Israeli media stated that Israel received a new cease - fire proposal from Hamas [2]. - Shipping Capacity: The average weekly shipping capacity from China to European base ports varies in different months. There are TBNs and empty sailings in September and October, and there were many additional ships in August. HPL announced two additional ships for October [3]. 2. Contract Analysis - August Contract: The freight rate has reached its peak and is continuously declining, which brings uncertainty to the delivery settlement price. The estimated final delivery settlement price is around 2100 points [4]. - October Contract: It is a quarterly contract, mainly short - allocated. Normally, the price in October is 20% - 30% lower than that in August. After Maersk's Week 36 price dropped, attention should be paid to whether other shipping companies will follow suit. HPL's additional ships in October may put pressure on the spot price. In the context of a large discount, it is relatively safe to short the EC2510 contract when the price is high, but excessive short - chasing should be avoided [5][6]. - December Contract: In the fourth quarter, due to Western holidays and shipping companies' preparations for long - term contract negotiations, freight rates are usually high. However, the risk is whether the Suez Canal will reopen [6]. 3. Market Data - Futures Data: As of August 19, 2025, the total open interest of all container shipping index European line futures contracts was 77,773 lots, and the single - day trading volume was 34,375 lots. Different contracts had different closing prices [7]. - Spot Data: On August 15, 2025, the SCFI for different routes was announced. On August 18, the SCFIS for the Shanghai - Europe route was 2180.17 points [7]. - Container Ship Delivery: In 2025, it is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of August 15, 2025, 167 container ships with a total capacity of 1.318 million TEU have been delivered [8]. 4. Strategy - Unilateral Strategy: The main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly [8]. - Arbitrage Strategy: Short the October contract when the price is high [8].