国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250820

Report Industry Investment Ratings Not provided in the given content. Core Views of the Report - Various commodities show different trends, including price fluctuations, range - bound trading, and impacts from macro and industry news [2][6] - Some commodities are affected by factors such as supply - demand relationships, cost support, and policy changes Summary by Commodities Precious Metals - Gold: PPI exceeding expectations dampens interest - rate cut expectations, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][8] - Silver: Experiences a slight decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][8] Base Metals - Copper: The rise of the US dollar puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of 0 [2][12] - Zinc: Shows a slight decline, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][15] - Lead: A significant increase in overseas inventories puts pressure on prices, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][18] - Tin: Trades in a range, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][21] - Aluminum: Trades in a range, with a trend strength of 0; Alumina's center of gravity moves down, with a trend strength of - 1; Casting aluminum alloy follows electrolytic aluminum, with a trend strength of 0 [2][25] - Nickel: Narrowly fluctuates based on fundamentals, and investors should be wary of news - related risks, with a trend strength of 0 [2][28] - Stainless Steel: The steel price fluctuates due to the game between macro expectations and reality, with a trend strength of 0 [2][28] Energy - related Metals - Carbonate Lithium: Trades in a range, and investors should pay attention to supply disruptions, with a trend strength of 0 [2][34] Industrial Metals - Industrial Silicon: Market sentiment weakens, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][38] - Polysilicon: Market news boosts sentiment, with a trend strength of 1 [2][39] Ferrous Metals - Iron Ore: Macro risk appetite has not significantly declined, and there is still support, with a trend strength of 0 [2][43] - Rebar: Trades in a wide range, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][46] - Hot - rolled Coil: Trades in a wide range, with a trend strength of 0 [2][47] - Silicon Ferrosilicon: The market leans towards fundamentals and shows a weak - side fluctuation, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][51] - Silicomanganese: The market leans towards fundamentals and shows a weak - side fluctuation, with a trend strength of - 1 [2][51] - Coke: Trades at a high level, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55] - Coking Coal: Trades at a high level, with a trend strength of 0 [2][55] Forestry Products - Log: Fluctuates repeatedly, with a trend strength of 0 [2][58] Chemicals - Para - xylene: Cost support is weak, but terminal demand improves, and the monthly spread remains strong [2][62] - PTA: Weak reality and strong expectations lead to a monthly - spread reverse arbitrage [2][62] - MEG: The arrival volume this week is low, and the basis strengthens [2][62] Rubber - Rubber: Fluctuates weakly [2][31] - Synthetic Rubber: Pulls back in the short - term and trades in a range in the medium - term [2][33] Building Materials - Asphalt: Poor sales and unfavorable crude - oil trends [2][35] - LLDPE: Trades in a range [2][38] - PP: Tends to be weak, but investors should be cautious when short - selling at low levels [2][39] - Caustic Soda: Should be treated bullishly, but investors should pay attention to the situation of near - month warehouse receipts [2][40] - Pulp: Fluctuates weakly [2][41] - Glass: The price of the original sheet is stable [2][43] - Methanol: Fluctuates [2][44] - Urea: Driven by short - term news, the upside space narrows [2][46] - Soda Ash: Little change in the spot market [2][48] - LPG: The risk of squeezing positions in the near - month contract still exists [2][49] Agricultural Products - Palm Oil: Follows the macro trend and adjusts [2][61] - Soybean Oil: Lacks driving force from US soybeans and adjusts [2][61] - Soybean Meal: The overnight US soybeans close lower, and the domestic soybean meal adjusts and fluctuates [2][63] - Soybean: The atmosphere in the soybean market is weak, and it adjusts and fluctuates [2][63] - Corn: Runs weakly [2][65] - Sugar: The import volume in July increases significantly year - on - year [2][67] - Cotton: Investors should pay attention to the listing of new cotton [2][68] - Egg: The long - term expectation is weak [2][70] - Live Pig: Wait for the verification of the spot price at the end of the month [2][71] - Peanut: Investors should pay attention to the situation of new peanuts [2][72] Shipping - Container Shipping Index (European Line): Fluctuates and consolidates, and investors can hold short positions in the October contract as appropriate [2][54] Textiles - Short - fiber: Trades in a short - term range, and investors should pay attention to the approaching peak - season demand [2][58] - Bottle - grade Chip: Has limited downside space and trades in a range [2][58] - Offset Printing Paper: Fluctuates at a low level and has limited upward momentum [2][59] - Pure Benzene: Fluctuates weakly [2][60]