新能源及有色金属日报：商品情绪降温，工业硅盘面短期或回调-20250820

Group 1: Industry Investment Ratings - No investment ratings provided in the report Group 2: Core Views - The commodity sentiment has cooled down, and the industrial silicon futures market may experience a short - term correction. The fundamentals of industrial silicon have changed little, but it may be affected by the sentiment of other commodities and decline. For polysilicon, the spot price is relatively stable, the futures are at a premium to the spot due to policy expectations, and the market may fluctuate widely in the short - term, suitable for long - term bottom - fishing [1][2][8] Group 3: Industry Analysis Industrial Silicon - Market Analysis: On August 19, 2025, the industrial silicon futures price showed a weak oscillation. The main contract 2511 opened at 8,615 yuan/ton and closed at 8,625 yuan/ton, down 110 yuan/ton (-1.26%) from the previous settlement. The position of the main contract 2511 was 286,605 lots, and the number of warehouse receipts on August 18 was 50,625 lots, a decrease of 85 lots from the previous day. The spot price of industrial silicon remained stable, with some individual silicon prices in Kunming, Huangpu Port, Tianjin, and Shanghai areas decreasing, while those in the northwest, Xinjiang, and Sichuan regions remained unchanged [1] - Supply Side: According to SMM data, the price of East China oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 9,300 - 9,500 yuan/ton, 421 silicon was 9,600 - 9,900 yuan/ton, Xinjiang oxygen - passing 553 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton, and 99 silicon was 8,600 - 8,800 yuan/ton. The price of 97 silicon also remained stable [1] - Demand Side: According to SMM statistics, the quotation of silicone DMC was 10,500 - 11,500 yuan/ton. Constrained by weak terminal demand, market transactions were still below expectations, and monomer factories offered discounts to reduce inventory, expected to maintain a weak oscillation pattern in the short - term [1] Polysilicon - Market Analysis: On August 19, 2025, the main contract 2511 of polysilicon futures oscillated widely, opening at 52,275 yuan/ton and closing at 52,260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.53% from the previous trading day. The position of the main contract reached 137,977 lots (135,517 lots the previous day), and the trading volume was 580,607 lots. The spot price of polysilicon remained stable. The inventory of polysilicon manufacturers and silicon wafers increased, with the latest polysilicon inventory at 24.20 (a month - on - month increase of 3.86%), silicon wafer inventory at 19.80GW (a month - on - month increase of 3.60%), weekly polysilicon output at 29,300 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 0.30%), and silicon wafer output at 12.10GW (a month - on - month increase of 0.67%) [4] - Silicon Wafer: The price of domestic N - type 18Xmm silicon wafers was 1.20 yuan/piece, N - type 210mm was 1.54 yuan/piece, and N - type 210R silicon wafers was 1.34 yuan/piece [4] - Battery Chip: The price of high - efficiency PERC182 battery chips was 0.27 yuan/W, PERC210 battery chips was about 0.28 yuan/W, Topcon M10 battery chips was about 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon G12 battery chips was 0.29 yuan/W, Topcon 210RN battery chips was 0.29 yuan/W, and HJT210 half - slice battery was 0.37 yuan/W [5] - Component: The mainstream transaction price of PERC182mm components was 0.67 - 0.74 yuan/W, PERC210mm was 0.69 - 0.73 yuan/W, N - type 182mm was 0.67 - 0.68 yuan/W, and N - type 210mm was 0.67 - 0.69 yuan/W. On August 18, the bidding for the second batch of photovoltaic component procurement for China Resources Power's 2025 photovoltaic projects opened, with a total procurement capacity of 3GW in three bid sections [6] Group 4: Policy Information - On August 19, multiple departments jointly held a photovoltaic industry symposium, requiring the photovoltaic industry to strengthen industrial regulation, curb low - price disorderly competition, standardize product quality, and support industry self - regulation to promote the healthy and sustainable development of the industry [7] Group 5: Strategy Suggestions Industrial Silicon - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - delivery: None - Inter - variety: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [2] Polysilicon - Unilateral: Short - term range trading, suitable for long - term bottom - fishing - Inter - delivery: None - Inter - variety: None - Futures - cash: None - Options: None [8]