Group 1: Nickel Variety Market Analysis - On August 19, 2025, the main contract 2509 of Shanghai nickel opened at 120,490 yuan/ton and closed at 120,330 yuan/ton, a change of -0.37% from the previous trading day's closing price. The trading volume was 63,677 lots, and the open interest was 55,967 lots [1]. - The main contract of Shanghai nickel is about to switch to the 2510 contract. The night - session of the main contract opened and quickly rose to 121,450 yuan/ton but failed to hold the high, then fell to 120,140 yuan/ton and finally closed at 120,340 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan or 0.29% from the previous day's settlement price. The trading volume was 78,139 lots, and the open interest was 62,507 lots. The day - session continued to be weak, with an opening price of 120,490 yuan, a high of 120,950 yuan, a low of 120,050 yuan, and finally closed at 120,330 yuan, down 450 yuan or 0.37%. The trading volume was 63,677 lots, and the open interest decreased to 55,967 lots, a decrease of 6,540 lots from the night - session. On August 18, the LME nickel price closed at $15,095/ton, down 0.66%, and further fell to $15,110/ton on August 19, with the lowest intraday reaching $15,050, approaching the key support level of $15,000 [2]. - In the nickel ore market, there is a wait - and - see attitude. The price of nickel ore is stable. In the Philippines, the FOB price of 1.3% nickel ore resources in September is mostly $32, and the mine - end price has a slight upward trend. The downstream nickel - iron market is stabilizing, and iron plants are still in losses, so they are not willing to accept high - priced nickel ore raw materials. In Indonesia, the second - phase domestic trade benchmark price of nickel ore in August decreased slightly by $0.03 - $0.04; the current mainstream premium is +24, with a premium range of +23 - 25. Some Indonesian iron plants expect the premium in the second - phase of August to decline due to thin profits [3]. - The sales price of Jinchuan Group in the Shanghai market is 122,800 yuan/ton, up 200 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The nickel price was weak during the day, and the procurement rhythm of downstream enterprises did not change significantly. The spot trading of refined nickel was average. The spot premiums and discounts of various brands of refined nickel were stable. Driven by the ex - factory price of Jinchuan resources, the premium increased slightly. Russian nickel resources have been replenished recently, and the spot shortage has eased, with the spot premium decreasing slightly. Among them, the premium of Jinchuan nickel changed by 150 yuan/ton to 2,350 yuan/ton, the premium of imported nickel changed by 0 yuan/ton to 350 yuan/ton, and the premium of nickel beans was 2,450 yuan/ton. The previous trading day's Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts were 22,841 (-210.0) tons, and the LME nickel inventory was 209,328 (-1,086) tons [3]. Strategy - In the short term, the nickel price will mainly show a volatile trend, being more affected by macro - sentiment, but the pattern of oversupply remains unchanged, and the upside space is limited. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [4]. Group 2: Stainless Steel Variety Market Analysis - On August 19, 2025, the main contract 2510 of stainless steel opened at 13,025 yuan/ton and closed at 12,885 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 134,082 lots, and the open interest was 133,538 lots [4]. - The night - session of the main contract of stainless steel opened at 13,015 yuan/ton, then rose to 13,070 yuan/ton but failed to hold the high, and finally closed at 13,010 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan or 0.04% from the previous day's settlement price. The intraday low was 12,970 yuan/ton, indicating that the bulls' tentative rebound was suppressed by the bears. The trading volume was 121,765 lots, and the open interest was 134,400 lots, a slight decrease from the previous day, showing that the long and short funds chose to wait and see after the game. The day - session continued to be weak, with an opening price of 13,000 yuan/ton, a high of 13,025 yuan/ton, a low of 12,855 yuan/ton, and finally closed at 12,885 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan or 1.07%. The price broke through the key support level of 12,900 yuan, triggering some stop - loss orders. The trading volume was 134,082 lots, and the open interest decreased to 133,538 lots, a decrease of 862 lots from the night - session, showing obvious signs of capital leaving [5]. - In the spot market, affected by the sharp decline of the futures market, the price - holding sentiment of spot traders has weakened. Coupled with the continued weak trading in the previous days and the increasing pressure to sell at the end of the month, the quotes have loosened and declined slightly. However, affected by the market psychology of buying on rising and not on falling, the downstream wait - and - see sentiment has further intensified, and the trading situation has become even lighter. The stainless steel price in the Wuxi market is 13,075 yuan/ton, and in the Foshan market is 13,075 yuan/ton. The premium and discount of 304/2B are 260 - 410 yuan/ton. According to SMM data, the ex - factory tax - included average price of high - nickel pig iron yesterday changed by 1.00 yuan/nickel point to 927.0 yuan/nickel point [6]. Strategy - Currently, it is still in the traditional off - season of consumption, with weak demand, and the fundamentals have not changed fundamentally. It is expected that the stainless steel price will fluctuate weakly in the near future. The strategy is mainly range - bound operation for the single - side trading, and there are no recommended strategies for inter - delivery, cross - variety, spot - futures, and options trading [7].
新能源及有色金属日报：多空博弈激烈，沪镍不锈钢震荡走弱-20250820
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-20 05:16