冶炼产量仍偏高，铜价暂时难有靓丽表现

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Copper: Cautiously bullish [6] - Arbitrage: On hold - Options: short put@77000 yuan/ton 2. Core Viewpoints - Currently, processing fees have rebounded, but the relative shortage of mine resources is difficult to change. Consumption is also hard to have a remarkable performance, but it won't collapse significantly due to relatively stable power grid orders. Macro factors are relatively favorable for copper prices. Operationally, it is still recommended to mainly buy on dips for hedging, with the operation range at 77,500 - 77,800 yuan/ton. However, attention should be paid to the later development of the Putin - Biden meeting. If the situation continues to improve, the LME may accept Russian copper again, which may put some pressure on LME copper prices [6][7] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market News and Important Data Futures Quotes - On August 19, 2025, the main Shanghai copper futures contract opened at 78,840 yuan/ton and closed at 78,890 yuan/ton, a -0.08% change from the previous trading day's close. The night - session main contract opened at 78,690 yuan/ton and closed at 78,550 yuan/ton, a 0.43% decline from the afternoon close [1] Spot Situation - The domestic electrolytic copper spot market trading was light. The SMM1 copper was quoted at 79,010 - 79,190 yuan/ton, with an average premium of 195 yuan/ton, a 30 - yuan decline from the previous day. The market supply and demand were both weak, and the spot premium is expected to continue to decline under pressure [2] Important Information Summary - Macro and Geopolitical: The White House is planning a possible meeting of the leaders of the US, Russia, and Ukraine in Budapest. Geopolitical risks are expected to cool significantly. Domestically, policies to promote consumption are expected to support demand [3] - Mine End: The ore body scale of Marimaka Copper's Pampa Medina mine in northern Chile has expanded, and the company's stock price has reached a new high in more than 13 years [3] - Smelting and Import: The LME's Hong Kong delivery warehouse was inaugurated. China's refined copper production in July 2025 was 1.27 million tons, a 14% year - on - year increase. In August, more smelters reduced production due to supply shortages [4] - Consumption: In July, China's copper industry monthly prosperity index was 41.8, up 0.9 points from June, continuing to operate in the "normal" range [5] - Inventory and Warehouse Receipts: LME warehouse receipts decreased by 200 tons to 155,150 tons. SHFE warehouse receipts remained unchanged at 25,498 tons. The domestic electrolytic copper spot inventory on August 20 was 133,700 tons, a change of 8,100 tons from the previous week [5]