美国ProFarmer公司作物巡查，大豆丰产预期不变

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for the industry is neutral [4] Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The U.S. ProFarmer company's crop inspection shows that the expectation of a bountiful soybean harvest remains unchanged, and the yield per unit is likely to reach a record high. However, due to a significant reduction in the planted area, the overall soybean production is still uncertain [3] - The Malaysian Palm Oil Council (MPOC) predicts that Malaysian palm oil prices will remain above 4,300 ringgit, supported by biodiesel demand, tightening soybean oil supply, and a slowdown in palm oil supply growth. The price strength depends on palm oil's competitiveness against soybean oil in the export market [2] Group 3: Market Analysis Futures Prices - The closing price of the palm oil 2601 contract was 9,640 yuan/ton, a change of +56 yuan or +0.58% [1] - The closing price of the soybean oil 2601 contract was 8,526 yuan/ton, a change of +10 yuan or +0.12% [1] - The closing price of the rapeseed oil 2601 contract was 9,850 yuan/ton, a change of +24 yuan or +0.24% [1] Spot Prices - The spot price of palm oil in Guangdong was 9,660 yuan/ton, a change of +150 yuan or +1.58%, with a spot basis of P01 + 20 yuan, a change of +94 yuan [1] - The spot price of first - grade soybean oil in Tianjin was 8,680 yuan/ton, a change of +50 yuan/ton or +0.58%, with a spot basis of Y01 + 154 yuan, a change of +40 yuan [1] - The spot price of fourth - grade rapeseed oil in Jiangsu was 9,980 yuan/ton, a change of +20 yuan or +0.20%, with a spot basis of OI01 + 130 yuan, a change of - 4 yuan [1] Group 4: Recent Market Consultation Summary Crop Yield Forecasts - ProFarmer expects the 2025 corn yield per acre in Ohio to be 185.69 bushels/acre, compared to 183.29 bushels/acre in 2024 [2] - ProFarmer expects the 2025 corn yield per acre in South Dakota to be 174.18 bushels/acre, compared to 156.51 bushels/acre in 2024 [2] - ProFarmer expects the average number of soybean pods in Ohio in 2025 to be 1,287.28, compared to 1,229.93 in 2024 [2] - ProFarmer expects the average number of soybean pods in South Dakota in 2025 to be 1,188.45, compared to 1,025.89 in 2024 [2] Brazilian "Soybean Moratorium Plan" - Brazil's competition management agency CADE recommends a full investigation of the signatories of the "Soybean Moratorium Plan". The general manager of CADE decides to implement "preventive measures" and impose fines on the working group coordinating the plan and the soybean export companies that signed the document [2] - The Brazilian National Association of Grain Exporters (ANEC) is concerned about CADE's decision, will take administrative measures to appeal, and will maintain a "cooperative spirit" with the competition regulator [2]