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聚烯烃日报：需求端缓慢跟进，市场支撑偏弱-20250820
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-20 05:19

Report Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - term: 09 - 01 reverse spread; Cross - variety: None [3] Core View - The polyolefin market has weak support due to slow demand follow - up. Macro factors offer no positive boost, causing the polyolefin futures to decline slightly. Supply pressure persists as previously shut - down plants restart. Although the postponed commissioning of the 90 - million - ton/year PP plant at Daxie Petrochemical eases short - term supply pressure, long - term new capacity pressure is significant. Cost support is weak as international oil prices are weak and propane prices are stable. The demand side is in the transition between peak and off - peak seasons, with slow improvement in terminal operations, providing limited market support [2] Summary by Directory 1. Polyolefin Basis Structure - The L main contract closed at 7307 yuan/ton (- 27), and the PP main contract closed at 7016 yuan/ton (- 32). LL North China spot was 7220 yuan/ton (- 30), LL East China spot was 7300 yuan/ton (+ 0), and PP East China spot was 7000 yuan/ton (+ 0). LL North China basis was - 87 yuan/ton (- 3), LL East China basis was - 7 yuan/ton (+ 27), and PP East China basis was - 16 yuan/ton (+ 32) [1] 2. Production Profit and Operating Rate - PE operating rate was 84.2% (+ 0.1%), and PP operating rate was 77.9% (+ 0.6%). PE oil - based production profit was 396.5 yuan/ton (- 55.1), PP oil - based production profit was - 143.5 yuan/ton (- 55.1), and PDH - based PP production profit was 171.6 yuan/ton (- 18.4) [1] 3. Polyolefin Non - standard Price Difference - No specific data in the given text 4. Polyolefin Import and Export Profit - LL import profit was - 111.4 yuan/ton (+ 3.6), PP import profit was - 497.8 yuan/ton (- 36.4), and PP export profit was 34.6 US dollars/ton (+ 4.5) [1] 5. Polyolefin Downstream Operating Rate and Downstream Profit - PE downstream agricultural film operating rate was 13.8% (+ 0.8%), PE downstream packaging film operating rate was 49.1% (- 0.2%), PP downstream plastic weaving operating rate was 41.4% (+ 0.3%), and PP downstream BOPP film operating rate was 61.1% (+ 0.3%) [1] 6. Polyolefin Inventory - No specific data in the given text, but it is mentioned that upstream and mid - stream inventories are rising and inventory pressure is high [2]