新能源及有色金属日报：海外氧化铝价格同步出现松动-20250820

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Aluminum: Cautiously bullish [9] - Alumina: Cautiously bearish [9] - Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] Core Viewpoints - For electrolytic aluminum, although the supply has a slight increase with limited impact and the consumption is in the seasonal off - peak but shows signs of improvement, the long - term supply is restricted and the consumption peak season can be expected [6] - For alumina, the spot supply is becoming looser, the risk of cornering the market is reduced, and the ore price is difficult to rise due to the expected surplus and high inventory. The supply is increasing, and the situation of tight supply in the south and loose supply in the north will continue [6][7] - For aluminum alloy, the price spread and smelting profit show a seasonal repair trend, and the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract can be concerned [8] Summary by Relevant Content 1. Aluminum Spot - East China A00 aluminum price is 20,590 yuan/ton, with a change of 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium is - 20 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous trading day [1] - Central Plains A00 aluminum price is 20,490 yuan/ton, the spot premium changes by 10 yuan/ton to - 120 yuan/ton [1] - Foshan A00 aluminum price is 20,550 yuan/ton, with a change of 50 yuan/ton from the previous trading day; the spot premium changes by 10 yuan/ton to - 55 yuan/ton [1] 2. Aluminum Futures - On August 19, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai aluminum opened at 20,580 yuan/ton, closed at 20,545 yuan/ton, with a change of - 40 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The highest price was 20,620 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 20,535 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 105,187 lots, and the open interest was 234,699 lots [2] 3. Aluminum Inventory - As of August 19, 2025, the domestic social inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots was 607,000 tons, with a change of 1.9 tons from the previous period; the warrant inventory was 65,467 tons, with a change of - 25 tons from the previous trading day; the LME aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, unchanged from the previous trading day [2] 4. Alumina Spot Price - On August 19, 2025, the SMM alumina price in Shanxi was 3,225 yuan/ton, in Shandong was 3,210 yuan/ton, in Henan was 3,225 yuan/ton, in Guangxi was 3,325 yuan/ton, in Guizhou was 3,340 yuan/ton, and the FOB price of Australian alumina was 370 US dollars/ton [2] 5. Alumina Futures - On August 19, 2025, the main contract of alumina opened at 3,178 yuan/ton, closed at 3,120 yuan/ton, with a change of - 79 yuan/ton from the previous trading day's closing price, a change of - 2.47%. The highest price was 3,187 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 3,116 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 273,457 lots, and the open interest was 192,727 lots [2] 6. Aluminum Alloy Price - On August 19, 2025, the purchase price of Baotai civil raw aluminum was 15,500 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of mechanical raw aluminum was 15,600 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day. The Baotai quotation of ADC12 was 19,900 yuan/ton, unchanged from the previous day [3] 7. Aluminum Alloy Inventory - The social inventory of aluminum alloy was 49,400 tons, and the in - plant inventory was 60,600 tons [4] 8. Aluminum Alloy Cost and Profit - The theoretical total cost was 20,112 yuan/ton, and the theoretical profit was - 112 yuan/ton [5] 9. Market Analysis - Electrolytic aluminum: The supply has a slight increase with limited impact. Consumption is in the off - peak season but shows improvement. The aluminum rod output increases and the inventory decreases. Although the social inventory of aluminum ingots is increasing, the consumption is changing from the off - peak to the peak season, and the downward space of aluminum price is limited [6] - Alumina: In East Australia, 30,000 tons were traded at FOB 369 US dollars/ton, down 5 US dollars/ton from a week ago. The warrant inventory increases rapidly, reducing the risk of cornering the market. The ore price is difficult to rise due to the expected surplus and high inventory. The smelting profit exists, and the supply is increasing [6] - Aluminum alloy: The price spread of AD2511 - AL2511 contract is - 405 yuan/ton. The price spread in the spot market and the smelting profit of aluminum alloy enterprises show a seasonal repair trend, and the spread arbitrage of the 11 - contract can be concerned [8] 10. Strategy - Unilateral: Aluminum: Cautiously bullish; Alumina: Cautiously bearish; Aluminum alloy: Cautiously bullish [9] - Arbitrage: Shanghai aluminum positive spread arbitrage, long AD11 and short AL11 [9]