Report Industry Investment Rating - RU and NR are rated neutral [4] - BR is rated neutral [5] Core Viewpoints - The support for natural rubber recently comes from the macro - environment and upstream cost. Rain in Southeast Asian production areas may keep raw material prices firm, but they will fall after the rain stops. The overall supply pressure is small currently, but it is expected to increase at the end of August. The downstream tire开工率 shows a differentiated trend, and attention should be paid to tire factories' stocking willingness before the traditional peak season [4] - For BR, the supply is expected to increase next week. The downstream tire开工率 is also differentiated, and the overall supply - demand pattern is weak. The price of butadiene is expected to be stable, and the price of surrounding natural rubber can also drive the price of BR [5] Market News and Data Futures - On the previous trading day, the closing price of the RU main contract was 15,875 yuan/ton, up 55 yuan/ton from the previous day; the NR main contract was 12,690 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton; the BR main contract was 11,840 yuan/ton, with no change [1] Spot - The price of Yunnan - produced whole latex in the Shanghai market was 14,900 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai mixed rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 14,650 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton. The price of Thai 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,810 US dollars/ton, up 5 US dollars/ton. The price of Indonesian 20 - grade standard rubber in Qingdao Free Trade Zone was 1,765 US dollars/ton, up 10 US dollars/ton. The ex - factory price of BR9000 of Sinopec Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton, with no change. The market price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,750 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton [1] Market Information - In July 2025, China imported 634,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), a 3.4% increase from 613,000 tons in the same period of 2024 [2] - In the first seven months of 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 5.63 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%; the export value was 99.2 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 5.4%. From January to July, the export volume of automobile tires was 4.8 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 4.9%; the export value was 81.9 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 4.9% [2] - In the first seven months of 2025, Cote d'Ivoire's rubber export volume totaled 908,487 tons, a 14.3% increase from 794,831 tons in the same period of 2024. In July alone, the export volume increased by 28.3% year - on - year and 28.5% month - on - month [2] - In July 2025, the heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles (including exports and new - energy models), an increase of about 42% from 58,300 vehicles in the same period last year [2] - According to QinRex data, in the first half of 2025, the United States imported 143.43 million tires, a 6.8% year - on - year increase. Among them, the import of passenger car tires increased by 3% year - on - year to 84.89 million; the import of truck and bus tires increased by 10% year - on - year to 32.32 million; the import of aircraft tires decreased by 13% year - on - year to 132,000; the import of motorcycle tires increased by 22% year - on - year to 1.88 million; the import of bicycle tires increased by 5% year - on - year to 3.15 million [2] Market Analysis Natural Rubber Spot and Spreads - On August 19, 2025, the RU basis was - 975 yuan/ton (- 5), the spread between the RU main contract and mixed rubber was 1,225 yuan/ton (+ 5), the import profit of smoked sheet rubber was - 3,241 yuan/ton (+ 185.34), the NR basis was 226.00 yuan/ton (+ 2.00); the price of whole latex was 14,900 yuan/ton (+ 50), the price of mixed rubber was 14,650 yuan/ton (+ 50), the price of 3L spot was 14,900 yuan/ton (+ 50). The STR20 was quoted at 1,810 US dollars/ton (+ 5), the spread between whole latex and 3L was 0 yuan/ton (+ 0); the spread between mixed rubber and styrene - butadiene rubber was 2,350 yuan/ton (+ 50) [3] Raw Materials - The price of Thai smoked sheet was 60.85 Thai baht/kg (- 0.43), the price of Thai glue was 54.70 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.50), the price of Thai cup lump was 49.80 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.35), and the difference between Thai glue and cup lump was 4.90 Thai baht/kg (+ 0.15) [3] Operating Rates - The operating rate of all - steel tires was 62.62% (+ 2.56%), and the operating rate of semi - steel tires was 69.11% (- 0.60%) [3] Inventory - The social inventory of natural rubber was 1,277,859 tons (- 10,990.00), the inventory of natural rubber at Qingdao Port was 616,731 tons (- 3,121), the RU futures inventory was 179,930 tons (+ 3,650), and the NR futures inventory was 46,469 tons (+ 4,234) [3] Butadiene Rubber Spot and Spreads - On August 19, 2025, the BR basis was - 140 yuan/ton (- 40), the ex - factory price of butadiene of Sinopec was 9,400 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 of Qilu Petrochemical was 11,900 yuan/ton (+ 0), the price of BR9000 in Zhejiang Chuanhua was 11,750 yuan/ton (+ 50), the price of private butadiene rubber in Shandong was 11,600 yuan/ton (+ 0), and the import profit of butadiene rubber in Northeast Asia was - 997 yuan/ton (+ 94) [3][4] Operating Rates - The operating rate of high - cis butadiene rubber was 64.52% (- 3.65%) [4] Inventory - The inventory of butadiene rubber traders was 6,990 tons (- 300), and the inventory of butadiene rubber enterprises was 23,450 tons (- 700) [4]
化工日报：市场氛围转弱，下游成交谨慎-20250820
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-20 05:19