烧碱情绪暂稳，PVC延续弱势

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content Core Views - The PVC market remains weak with high supply pressure due to production resumptions, new capacity, and high inventory, while demand is low with weak downstream and export prospects [3] - The caustic soda market sentiment is temporarily stable. Although upstream production is high, there are some potential declines in local areas. Demand is showing positive signs, and inventory pressure is decreasing [4] Summary by Relevant Catalogs PVC Market Data - Futures price: The closing price of the PVC main contract was 5,001 yuan/ton, down 53 yuan [1] - Spot price: The East China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,730 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the South China calcium carbide method was quoted at 4,820 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan [1] - Production profit: The calcium carbide method production gross profit was -231 yuan/ton, up 21 yuan; the ethylene method production gross profit was -540 yuan/ton, down 51 yuan; the export profit was 18.2 dollars/ton, up 2.2 dollars [1] - Inventory: Factory inventory was 32.7 million tons, down 1.0 million tons; social inventory was 49.3 million tons, up 1.2 million tons [1] -开工率: The overall PVC operating rate was 78.84%, up 1.09% [1] - Downstream orders: Production enterprise pre - sales volume was 79.1 million tons, down 4.1 million tons [1] Market Analysis - Supply: With the return of previous maintenance and new capacity coming online, PVC production is expected to continue to rise, and supply pressure is high [3] - Demand: Downstream product operating rates are low, with only rigid demand. Export orders are decreasing, and after September, export prospects are weak [3] - Inventory: Social inventory is increasing, and the absolute inventory level is high. The 09 contract has large warehouse receipt pressure [3] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral - Inter - period: V09 - 01 reverse spread - Inter - variety: None [5] Caustic Soda Market Data - Futures price: The closing price of the SH main contract was 2,598 yuan/ton, up 31 yuan [1] - Spot price: The Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda was quoted at 840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the 50% liquid caustic soda was quoted at 1,330 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan [2] - Production profit: The single - variety profit in Shandong was 1,634 yuan/ton, unchanged; the comprehensive profit in Shandong (0.8 tons of liquid chlorine) was 730.8 yuan/ton, up 40.0 yuan; the comprehensive profit in Shandong (1 ton of PVC) was 593.78 yuan/ton, down 20.00 yuan; the northwest comprehensive profit (1 ton of PVC) was 1,377.74 yuan/ton, down 50.00 yuan [2] - Inventory: Liquid caustic soda factory inventory was 43.78 million tons, down 2.39 million tons; flake caustic soda factory inventory was 2.33 million tons, up 0.12 million tons [2] - Operating rate: The overall caustic soda operating rate was 84.10%, down 1.00% [2] - Downstream operating rate: Alumina operating rate was 85.64%, down 0.09%; printing and dyeing operating rate in East China was 61.46%, up 2.18%; viscose staple fiber operating rate was 86.04%, up 1.07% [2] Market Analysis - Supply: Although upstream production is high, there are local production cuts and planned maintenance, so future production may decline slightly [4] - Demand: Alumina production is stable, non - aluminum downstream demand is increasing, and downstream inventory replenishment sentiment is improving [4] - Inventory: Enterprise inventory pressure is decreasing [4] Strategy - Unilateral: Wait - and - see - Inter - period: SH10 - 01 positive spread at low prices - Inter - variety: None [5]