甲醇日报：港口基差偏弱，内地开工迎来回升预期-20250820

Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided Core Viewpoints - The basis of methanol at ports is weak, and ports are in a continuous inventory accumulation cycle. The overall overseas methanol operation rate is still high, with only a small amount of maintenance in Iran and the resumption of production at Malaysia's Petronas. The pressure of methanol arrivals in China is increasing, while the maintenance of the Xingxing MTO unit has dragged down demand. The centralized maintenance period of coal - based methanol is gradually over, and the operation rate will gradually increase in late August, which may drive the inventory in inland areas to bottom out and rebound. The downstream formaldehyde is in a seasonal off - season, waiting for a further bottom - up recovery [3] Summary by Directory I. Methanol Basis & Inter - period Structure - The report presents multiple figures related to methanol basis and inter - period structure, including the basis between methanol in Taicang and the main contract, the basis between spot prices in different regions and the main futures contract, and the price difference between different methanol futures contracts [6][7][11] II. Methanol Production Profit, MTO Profit, Import Profit - Figures show the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia, the MTO profit in East China, the import price difference between Taicang methanol and CFR China, and the price differences between CFR Southeast Asia, FOB US Gulf, FOB Rotterdam and CFR China [6][26][30] III. Methanol Operation and Inventory - The report includes data on the total port inventory of methanol, the MTO/P operation rate (including integrated units), the sample inventory of inland factories, and the operation rate of methanol in China (including integrated units) [6][33][34] IV. Regional Price Differences - Figures display various regional price differences, such as the price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest, between East China and Inner Mongolia, between Taicang and southern Shandong, etc. [6][38][44] V. Traditional Downstream Profits - The report shows the production gross profit of formaldehyde in Shandong, acetic acid in Jiangsu, MTBE isomerization etherification in Shandong, and dimethyl ether in Henan [6][48][57] Market News and Important Data Inland - The price of Q5500 thermal coal in Ordos is 470 yuan/ton (unchanged), and the production profit of coal - based methanol in Inner Mongolia is 655 yuan/ton (-10 yuan). The inland methanol prices are as follows: Inner Mongolia's northern line is 2070 yuan/ton (-10 yuan), with a basis of 279 yuan/ton (-5 yuan); Inner Mongolia's southern line is 2080 yuan/ton (unchanged); Linyi in Shandong is 2334 yuan/ton (-11 yuan), with a basis of 143 yuan/ton (-6 yuan); Henan is 2210 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 19 yuan/ton (+5 yuan); Hebei is 2300 yuan/ton (unchanged), with a basis of 169 yuan/ton (+5 yuan). The inventory of inland factories is 295,573 tons (+1,885 tons), and the inventory of factories in the northwest is 182,500 tons (-3,000 tons). The pending orders of inland factories are 219,365 tons (-21,435 tons), and those of factories in the northwest are 107,000 tons (-15,800 tons) [1] Ports - The price of methanol in Taicang is 2280 yuan/ton (-22 yuan), with a basis of -111 yuan/ton (-17 yuan); CFR China is 261 US dollars/ton (-1 US dollar), and the import price difference in East China is 4 yuan/ton (-13 yuan). The price of methanol in Changzhou is 2415 yuan/ton; in Guangdong, it is 2275 yuan/ton (-25 yuan), with a basis of -116 yuan/ton (-20 yuan). The total port inventory is 1,021,800 tons (+96,320 tons), including 548,000 tons in Jiangsu ports (+50,000 tons), 139,000 tons in Zhejiang ports (-5,000 tons), and 213,000 tons in Guangdong ports (+43,000 tons). The downstream MTO operation rate is 83.12% (-0.77%) [2] Regional Price Differences - The price difference between northern Shandong and the northwest is -55 yuan/ton (-10 yuan); the price difference between Taicang and Inner Mongolia is -340 yuan/ton (-12 yuan); the price difference between Taicang and southern Shandong is -304 yuan/ton (-11 yuan); the price difference between southern Shandong and Taicang is -46 yuan/ton (+11 yuan); the price difference between Guangdong and East China is -185 yuan/ton (-3 yuan); the price difference between East China and Sichuan - Chongqing is -115 yuan/ton (+18 yuan) [2] Strategy - For single - side trading, it is advisable to cautiously short - sell for hedging at high prices. For inter - period and cross - variety trading, it is recommended to wait and see [4]