燃料油日报：原油端延续弱势，短期市场驱动有限-20250820

Report Industry Investment Rating - High-sulfur fuel oil: Sideways [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Sideways [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3] Core Viewpoints - Crude oil prices have been oscillating downward, exerting a bearish influence on the cost side of FU and LU. The mid-term oil market balance sheet anticipates an oversupply, but short-term attention should be paid to the progress of talks among Russia, the US, and Ukraine, as changes in the US's attitude towards sanctions on Russia will affect market sentiment and cause additional price fluctuations [1]. - The fundamentals and market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil remain weak. The spot supply is abundant, with high inventories in Singapore's onshore and floating storage. There are few bright spots on the demand side except for the peak-season effect of power plants, and the market lacks upward momentum. As summer ends, the demand from power plants in the Middle East and Egypt is expected to decline, and the high-sulfur fuel oil market may further loosen. However, if the crack spread adjusts sufficiently to attract a significant improvement in refinery demand, the market structure is expected to stabilize and strengthen again. The progress of the Russia-Ukraine peace talks is worthy of short-term attention. There have been signs of an increase in Russia's high-sulfur fuel oil shipments in July and August. If the negotiations are successful, the US relaxes sanctions on Russia, and Ukraine stops drone attacks, Russia's fuel oil supply may further increase [1]. - The current market pressure on low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, but there is no overall shortage expectation. Domestic production remains at a low level, but overseas supply has rebounded. From a mid-term perspective, due to the relatively abundant remaining production capacity of low-sulfur fuel oil, supply will be released once the crack spread is appropriate. Moreover, the carbon-neutral trend in the shipping industry will gradually replace the market share of low-sulfur fuel oil, and there is significant resistance above the market [2]. Market Analysis High-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The spot price of Singapore's high-sulfur 380 fuel oil is presented in Figure 1, and the price of the Singapore high-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract is shown in Figure 3 [1][4]. - The fundamentals and market structure of high-sulfur fuel oil are weak, with abundant spot supply and high inventories in Singapore's onshore and floating storage. Demand is lackluster except for power plants, and the market lacks upward drivers. After summer, demand from Middle East and Egyptian power plants may decline, potentially further loosening the market. However, if the crack spread adjusts adequately to boost refinery demand, the market structure could stabilize and strengthen [1]. - The progress of Russia-Ukraine peace talks is crucial. Russia's high-sulfur fuel oil shipments showed an uptick in July and August. Successful negotiations, US sanctions relaxation, and an end to Ukrainian drone attacks could lead to increased Russian fuel oil supply [1]. Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil - The spot price of Singapore's low-sulfur fuel oil is presented in Figure 2, and the price of the Singapore low-sulfur fuel oil swap near-month contract is shown in Figure 4 [2][4]. - The current market pressure on low-sulfur fuel oil is limited, with no overall shortage expected. Domestic production is low, but overseas supply has recovered. Mid-term, ample production capacity means supply will respond to favorable crack spreads. The shipping industry's carbon-neutral trend will gradually erode low-sulfur fuel oil's market share, creating significant market resistance [2]. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange's fuel oil futures was down 0.52% at 2,686 yuan/ton, while the closing price of the main contract of the INE low-sulfur fuel oil futures was up 0.2% at 3,466 yuan/ton [1]. - Figures 7 - 12 show the closing prices, index closing prices, near-month contract closing prices, near-month contract spreads, and trading volume and open interest of the main contract and total contracts of the fuel oil FU futures [4][14][17][18]. - Figures 13 - 18 show the closing prices, index closing prices, near-month contract prices, near-month contract spreads, and trading volume and open interest of the main contract and total contracts of the low-sulfur fuel oil LU futures [4][30][31][33]. Strategy - High-sulfur fuel oil: Sideways [3] - Low-sulfur fuel oil: Sideways [3] - Cross-variety: None [3] - Cross-period: None [3] - Spot-futures: None [3] - Options: None [3]