Report Industry Investment Rating - Unilateral: Neutral; Inter - term: After the export window period, conduct a reverse spread on 01 - 05 at high levels; Inter - variety: None [3] Core View - Recent market export expectations have been boosted, driving up urea futures. Although there is still significant export space in July, the subsequent domestic demand drive is weak. With high - level urea production and high upstream inventory, future urea supply and demand may remain loose if exports do not exceed last year's total. The cost - side support is average, and the port inventory fluctuates slightly. Attention should be paid to the follow - up export implementation and dynamic changes [2] Summary by Catalog 1. Urea Basis Structure - On August 19, 2025, the urea main contract closed at 1817 yuan/ton (+63). The ex - factory price of small - sized urea in Henan was 1740 yuan/ton (0), in Shandong was 1730 yuan/ton (+0), and in Jiangsu was 1740 yuan/ton (+0). The Shandong basis was - 87 yuan/ton (-63), the Henan basis was - 77 yuan/ton (-63), and the Jiangsu basis was - 77 yuan/ton (-63) [1] 2. Urea Production - As of August 19, 2025, the enterprise capacity utilization rate was 83.21% (0.08%). Jiujiang Xinlianxin (capacity of 520,000 tons) and Xinjiang Yihua (capacity of 600,000 tons) are expected to stop for maintenance for more than 20 days on August 20 [1][2] 3. Urea Production Profit and Operating Rate - As of August 19, 2025, the urea production profit was 200 yuan/ton (+0). The coal - based urea profit is acceptable, and the cost - side support is average [1][2] 4. Urea FOB Price and Export Profit - As of August 19, 2025, the urea export profit was 1290 yuan/ton (-32). India's NFL has issued a urea import tender, which will boost the international urea market. August is the export window period, and urea exports continue [1][2] 5. Urea Downstream Operating Rate and Orders - As of August 19, 2025, the compound fertilizer capacity utilization rate was 43.48% (+1.98%); the melamine capacity utilization rate was 49.82% (-11.28%); the urea enterprise's advance order days were 6.29 days (-0.24). The downstream industrial demand is weak, and the compound fertilizer factory mainly conducts rigid procurement [1][2] 6. Urea Inventory and Warehouse Receipts - As of August 19, 2025, the total inventory of sample enterprises was 957,400 tons (+69,800), and the port sample inventory was 464,000 tons (-19,000). The port inventory fluctuates slightly [1][2]
出口情绪扰动，尿素继续上涨
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-08-20 05:19