油料日报：天气炒作趋缓叠加需求疲弱，豆一花生承压-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment strategy for soybeans and peanuts is neutral [3] 2. Core View of the Report - Weather speculation has eased and demand is weak, putting pressure on soybeans and peanuts. The domestic soybean market has a weak fundamental situation, with ongoing soybean auctions, favorable weather for growth, and weak demand. The relationship between domestic and imported soybeans is strengthening. For peanuts, the market is in a transition phase, with weak downstream demand. As new peanuts are increasingly available, prices may face pressure [1][2][4] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Soybean View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the soybeans 2511 contract yesterday was 4,046.00 yuan/ton, a change of +2.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.05%. Spot: The edible soybean spot basis was A11 + 214, a change of -42 from the previous day, a decrease of 32.14%. In the Northeast market, soybean prices were stable yesterday, and state reserve auctions had light trading [1] - Yesterday, soybeans futures fluctuated. Last week, influenced by surrounding varieties, the fluctuation range increased. The preliminary anti - dumping ruling on rapeseed also provided some support. However, due to weak fundamentals, the government is conducting soybean auctions, the weather is favorable for soybean growth, and demand is weak. The relationship between domestic and imported soybeans is strengthening, and their linkage is obvious. Short - term attention should be paid to weather changes and policy adjustments [2] Peanut View Market Analysis - Futures: The closing price of the peanuts 2510 contract yesterday was 7,828.00 yuan/ton, a change of +18.00 yuan/ton from the previous day, an increase of +0.23%. Spot: The average spot price of peanuts was 8,260.00 yuan/ton, with no change from the previous day. The spot basis was PK10 + 272.00, a change of -118.00 from the previous day, a decrease of -30.26%. The average price of domestic peanut kernels was 4.13 yuan/jin, a decrease of 0.07 yuan/jin. Some producing areas are in the new - old peanut transition phase, with the price of old peanuts weakening and new peanuts being relatively firm [3] - Yesterday, peanut futures had a narrow - range fluctuation. The market is in a transition phase where new peanuts are gradually increasing in supply and old peanuts are winding down. Demand is weak, and traders are mainly consuming existing inventories. As the area of new peanut listings expands, peanut prices may face pressure. Attention should be paid to production and weather conditions [4]