铁矿石：供给增速超预期，短期矿价跟随运行

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoint The supply growth rate of iron ore exceeds expectations, while the demand side remains resilient. The overall supply - demand relationship shifts from tight - balance to balance, and the short - term price will follow the sector's trend. The short - term market focuses more on industrial fundamentals, with positive external macro factors and domestic policies in the reserve stage, still having expectations for incremental monetary and fiscal policies [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Sections Supply - External ore shipments have rebounded more than expected. Australian shipments are stable with a slight increase, Brazilian shipments have reached a record high, and non - mainstream shipments have increased for three consecutive weeks and reached a record high for the same period. The arrival volume is at a moderately high level and tends to rise, and the marginal support from the supply side is weakening [2]. Demand - The daily average pig iron output in China has ended three consecutive weeks of decline and rebounded slightly, with the current daily average pig iron output at 240.66 (a week - on - week increase of 0.34). Steel mills have a high profitability rate and relatively good blast furnace profits, while the short - process steelmaking is in full - scale losses again. The short - term demand for iron ore remains resilient, and high domestic demand strongly supports the price. Attention should be paid to whether pig iron production can maintain a high - level upward trend and the military parade production - restriction in North China [2][3]. Inventory - The daily consumption of imported ore at steel mills remains high, and the inventory at steel mills has continued to rise month - on - month and is higher than that of the same period last year. Due to the increase in arrival volume, the port inventory has slightly accumulated. In the future, as the arrival volume decreases and pig iron production remains high, the short - term inventory is expected to remain stable or decline slightly [3].