农产品日报：出栏节奏放缓，猪价维持震荡-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for both the pig and egg sectors is cautiously bearish [3][5] 2. Core Views - For the pig market, future supply - side pressure will persist, and if consumer demand recovers, the supply - side slaughter volume will increase accordingly. From the breeding sow data, the supply is expected to remain high until March next year. The price support lies in the fourth - quarter consumption and secondary fattening, and if the frozen product volume increases significantly, the price may drop to near the cost price [2] - For the egg market, it has entered the pre - Mid - Autumn Festival stocking period. Although the egg storage is difficult recently due to weather issues and traders are cautious in purchasing, overall demand is increasing. The spot price is expected to fluctuate upward this week, but attention should be paid to the impact of cold - storage egg outflows on the spot market [4] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Pig Section Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the live pig 2509 contract yesterday was 13,900 yuan/ton, a change of +80 yuan/ton from the previous trading day, with a change rate of +0.58% [1] - Spot: In Henan, the price of external ternary live pigs was 13.63 yuan/kg, a change of +0.04 yuan/kg; in Jiangsu, it was 13.82 yuan/kg, a change of +0.07 yuan/kg; in Sichuan, it was 13.44 yuan/kg, with no change. The spot basis for Henan was LH09 - 270, a change of - 40; for Jiangsu, it was LH09 - 80, a change of - 10; for Sichuan, it was LH09 - 460, a change of - 80 [1] - Agricultural product prices: On August 19, the "Agricultural Product Wholesale Price 200 Index" was 115.33, up 0.09 points from the previous day. The "Vegetable Basket" product wholesale price index was 115.70, up 0.11 points. The average wholesale price of pork was 20.21 yuan/kg, unchanged; beef was 64.76 yuan/kg, down 0.2%; mutton was 59.72 yuan/kg, down 0.7%; eggs were 7.73 yuan/kg, up 1.8%; and white - striped chickens were 17.42 yuan/kg, down 0.5% [1] Market Analysis - The future supply - side pressure will continue. Based on the breeding sow data, the supply until next March will remain high. The price support comes from fourth - quarter consumption and secondary fattening, and a significant increase in frozen products may push the price down to near the cost [2] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [3] Egg Section Market News and Important Data - Futures: The closing price of the egg 2509 contract yesterday was 3065 yuan/500 kg, a change of - 48 yuan from the previous trading day, with a change rate of - 1.54% [3] - Spot: In Liaoning, the egg spot price was 3.24 yuan/jin, with no change; in Shandong, it was 3.25 yuan/jin, with no change; in Hebei, it was 2.64 yuan/jin, a change of - 0.05 yuan. The spot basis for Liaoning was JD09 + 175, a change of +48; for Shandong, it was JD09 + 185, a change of +48; for Hebei, it was JD09 - 425, a change of - 2 [3] - Inventory: On August 19, the national production - link inventory was 0.74 days, an increase of 0.09 days from the previous day, with an increase rate of 13.85%. The circulation - link inventory was 1.1 days, an increase of 0.10 days, with an increase rate of 10.00% [3] Market Analysis - It has entered the pre - Mid - Autumn Festival stocking period. Some food companies and schools are stocking up, and tourism and catering consumption are strong. Although the egg storage is difficult due to weather and traders are cautious, overall demand is increasing. The spot price is expected to fluctuate upward this week, but attention should be paid to the impact of cold - storage egg outflows [4] Strategy - Cautiously bearish [5]