7月财政数据点评：财政收支改善，发力继续前置

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - In July 2025, fiscal revenue improved marginally, and fiscal expenditure maintained a relatively high growth rate. However, there is a risk of a decline in fiscal expenditure in the future [1][4]. - Fiscal revenue improvement mainly came from tax revenue, with VAT and corporate income tax contributing more to tax growth. Fiscal expenditure relied more on government debt, and the broad fiscal deficit rate was at a relatively high level [2][3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Revenue Side - General Public Budget Revenue: In July 2025, the monthly general public budget revenue increased by 2.65% year - on - year (previous value: - 0.3%), with tax revenue up 5.0% (previous value: 1.0%) and non - tax revenue down 12.93% (previous value: - 3.7%), showing an improved revenue structure [1][11]. - Tax Revenue Composition: In July, the four major taxes all performed well. Domestic VAT increased by 4.3% year - on - year, consumption tax by 5.4%, corporate income tax by 6.4%, and individual income tax by 13.9%. VAT and corporate income tax contributed more to the year - on - year tax growth. Export tax rebates decreased by 5.6% year - on - year, and real - estate - related taxes decreased by 3.8%. Vehicle purchase tax decreased by 13.8%. In June, stamp duty and securities trading stamp duty increased by 24.2% and 125.4% respectively [2][13]. - Government Fund Revenue: In July, government fund revenue increased by 8.9% year - on - year (previous value: 20.8%). Considering the time lag between land transactions and government fund revenue and the weak real - estate investment growth, its sustainability needs further observation [1][17]. - Accumulated Revenue: From January to July, the accumulated general public budget revenue increased by 0.1% year - on - year, in line with the annual budget, but the structure was poor. Tax revenue growth was - 0.3%, lower than the budgeted 3.7%, while non - tax revenue growth was 2.0%, higher than the budgeted - 14.2%. Government bond fund revenue decreased by 0.7% year - on - year, with the narrowing decline's sustainability to be observed [23]. Expenditure Side - General Public Budget Expenditure: In July, general public budget expenditure increased by 3.04% year - on - year (previous value: 0.38%), showing a rebound in expenditure growth [2][19]. - Government Fund Expenditure: In July, government fund expenditure increased by 42.4% year - on - year, maintaining a high growth rate. This may be related to the positive growth of government fund revenue in July and the accelerated issuance of new special bonds since the end of June [2][19]. - Expenditure Structure: In July, traditional infrastructure expenditure continued to contract, with an overall infrastructure - related fiscal expenditure growth rate of - 3.8% (previous value: - 8.8%). Expenditure on social security increased by 13.1%, health by 14.2%, and debt service by 8.9% [3][19]. - Accumulated Expenditure: From January to July, fiscal expenditure growth was 3.4%, slightly lower than the annual budgeted 4.4%. Government fund expenditure growth was 31.7%, higher than the budgeted 23.1%, indicating relatively front - loaded spending [23]. Fiscal Deficit - As of July, fiscal expenditure relied more on government debt, and the broad fiscal deficit rate was at a relatively high level. From January to July, the general budget fiscal deficit was 2.49 trillion yuan, a year - on - year increase of about 0.5 trillion yuan. The accumulated broad fiscal deficit was 5.61 trillion yuan, and assuming a nominal GDP growth rate of 4% this year, the current accumulated broad fiscal deficit rate was 4.0%, close to that in 2022 [3][22]. Future Outlook - There is a risk of a decline in fiscal expenditure. After August, the year - on - year increase in government bond net financing is expected to turn negative. The scale of special bonds for project expenditure in the second half of the year is also expected to decline. Without incremental fiscal policies, fiscal expenditure intensity may decrease [4][25].