黑色金属数据日报-20250820

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core Viewpoints - The steel market shows a situation of both volume and price decline. The new production - restriction policy is looser, and there are fewer topics for speculation in the industry. The domestic policy may enter a vacuum period, and the market sentiment is cooling. The impact of pre - parade production restrictions on the total amount is not significant, and attention should be paid to possible mismatch in the low - inventory environment [2]. - The silicon - iron and manganese - silicon market has significant emotional fluctuations. Although the anti - involution policy provides long - term support, the current high inventory still has a de - stocking pressure. The steelmaking bids are generally positive, and the industry average profit has been greatly repaired [3]. - For coking coal and coke, the steel mills have not responded to the seventh round of price hikes. The futures and spot markets are both weak. The market has entered an adjustment phase and is expected to be volatile and weak [5]. - The iron ore market is in an adjustment phase. The future supply increase expectation and large - scale project capacity - release expectation will suppress the price increase. However, the support of the anti - involution policy and possible policy impacts in the steel sector may bring upward opportunities after the adjustment [6]. 3. Summary by Category Steel - Market Performance: On August 19, the far - month and near - month contract prices of steel futures generally declined. The RB2601 contract closed at 3208 yuan/ton, down 1.26%; the HC2601 contract closed at 3403 yuan/ton, down 0.58%. The spot market had a decline in both volume and price, and the market sentiment was poor [1][2]. - Policy and Industry Environment: The new production - restriction policy is looser, and the domestic policy may enter a vacuum period. The pre - parade production restrictions have little impact on the total amount, and the short - process power - valley profit is good, which is beneficial to the recovery of the operating rate [2]. - Supply and Demand: Last week, the supply and demand of building materials were both weak, with a large decline in apparent demand. The plate market improved month - on - month, but the overall demand was in the seasonal off - season, increasing concerns about insufficient demand [2]. - Investment Strategy: Unilaterally, pay attention to the support of the electric - arc furnace power - valley cost; in the short - term, pay attention to whether there is a stable trend when the price retraces. For arbitrage, do long the 01 volume - screw spread in the band. There are some profit - taking opportunities for the basis [7]. Silicon - Iron and Manganese - Silicon - Market Performance: The market sentiment fluctuates greatly, and the prices of silicon - iron and manganese - silicon have declined with the downward adjustment of the black sector [3]. - Policy and Industry Environment: The anti - involution policy provides long - term support. The steel mills' profits are repaired, and the supply of alloy plants continues to increase, with inventory mainly being destocked [3]. - Investment Strategy: Stop loss on long positions and wait and see [7]. Coking Coal and Coke - Market Performance: The steel mills have not responded to the seventh - round price hikes of coke. The spot market sentiment is average, and the futures market is weak. The prices of coking coal and coke futures declined on August 19, with the J2605 contract closing at 1802 yuan/ton, down 1.02%, and the JM2605 contract closing at 1230 yuan/ton, down 2.73% [1][5]. - Policy and Industry Environment: The safety inspection in the main production areas has little impact on the market. The market is concerned about the imbalance between the supply and demand of steel, and the demand problem has come into the spotlight as the market enters the off - season [5]. - Investment Strategy: Consider the market to be volatile and weak [7]. Iron Ore - Market Performance: The black sector is in a volatile trend, and the iron ore market is in an adjustment phase. The iron ore price is affected by the supply increase expectation and large - scale project capacity - release expectation [6]. - Policy and Industry Environment: The anti - involution policy continues, and possible future policies in the steel sector may have a greater impact on the iron ore market [6]. - Investment Strategy: Wait and see [7].