纸浆数据日报-20250820

Group 1 - Report Industry Investment Rating - The report does not provide an industry investment rating [1] Group 2 - Core View of the Report - Pulp prices in the futures market generally declined on August 19, 2025; while some spot prices remained stable and some increased. The supply side has price - increase announcements and production - reduction news; the demand side is still bearish for pulp prices as mainstream paper product prices have not stopped falling; and the inventory shows a cumulative trend. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see [1] Group 3 - Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Pulp Price Data Futures Prices - On August 19, 2025, SP2601 was 5420, down 1.02% day - on - day and 1.24% compared to Philip; SP2511 was 5178, down 1.41% day - on - day and 1.63% compared to Philip; SP2509 was 5132, down 1.31% day - on - day and 1.61% compared to Philip [1] Spot Prices - On August 19, 2025, the spot price of coniferous pulp Silver Star was 5850, unchanged day - on - day and year - on - year; Russian Needle was 5300, unchanged day - on - day and up 0.95% year - on - year; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 4200, unchanged day - on - day and up 1.20% year - on - year [1] Outer - Disk Quotes - In August 2025, the outer - disk quote of Chilean Silver Star was 720 dollars, down 2.70% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 510 dollars, up 4.08% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 620 dollars, unchanged month - on - month [1] Import Costs - In August 2025, the import cost of Chilean Silver Star was 5884, down 2.68% month - on - month; Brazilian Goldfish was 4182, up 4.03% month - on - month; Chilean Venus was 5073, unchanged month - on - month [1] 2. Pulp Fundamental Data Supply - In June 2025, the import volume of coniferous pulp was 67.8 tons, down 6.09% month - on - month; broadleaf pulp was 143.5 tons, up 10.98% month - on - month. The domestic production of broadleaf pulp and chemimechanical pulp fluctuated slightly in August 2025 [1] Inventory - As of August 14, 2025, the pulp port inventory was 209.9 tons, up 2.5% month - on - month; the futures delivery warehouse inventory was 25.4 tons [1] Demand - In August 2025, the production of finished paper such as offset paper, coated paper, tissue paper, and white cardboard fluctuated slightly [1] 3. Pulp Valuation Data - On August 19, 2025, the Russian Needle basis was 122, with a quantile level of 0.867; Silver Star basis was 672, with a quantile level of 0.9. The import profit of coniferous pulp Silver Star was - 34, with a quantile level of 0.547; broadleaf pulp Goldfish was 18, with a quantile level of 0.653 [1] 4. Summary Supply - Side - Brazil's Suzano announced a 20 - dollar/ton price increase in the Asian market in August 2025, and its commodity pulp production in the next 12 - month operating cycle will be about 3.5% lower than its annual nominal capacity. Chile's Arauco notified the August quotes, with supply reductions [1] Demand - Side - Current paper product demand is basically stable, but mainstream paper product prices have not stopped falling, which is bearish for pulp prices [1] Inventory - Side - As of August 14, 2025, the inventory of China's mainstream pulp ports was 209.9 tons, up 2.5% month - on - month, showing a cumulative trend [1] Strategy - Pulp prices have dropped significantly under the influence of the commodity macro - environment, but the spot price remains stable. The broadleaf pulp basis has strengthened to over - 1000 yuan/ton, and the futures valuation is low. Currently, it is recommended to wait and see [1]