贵金属数据日报-20250820

Report Summary 1. Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Short - term: On August 19, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed down 0.13% to 775.06 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed down 0.25% to 9187 yuan/kilogram. The potential for a three - way meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine may ease geopolitical conflicts, and high market risk preference along with a cooling of the Fed's rate - cut expectations due to tariff policies are suppressing precious metal prices. However, factors like the decline in US consumer confidence in August and ongoing tariff impacts will support gold prices. Short - term gold prices are expected to fluctuate within a range. Silver is expected to be volatile in the short - term. [4] - Long - term: With the US debt exceeding $7 trillion and a certain probability of Fed rate cuts this year, gold has long - term support. In the long run, factors such as the Fed's potential rate cuts, global geopolitical uncertainties, great - power competition, and the trend of de - dollarization with continued central bank gold purchases will likely push up the long - term center of gold prices. For silver, in the medium - term, it is more likely to follow fundamental logic, and caution is needed regarding its upside potential. [4] 3. Section - by - Section Summaries Price Tracking - Precious Metal Prices: On August 19, compared to August 18, London gold spot dropped 0.4% to $3336.05/ounce, London silver spot fell 0.5% to $37.90/ounce, COMEX gold decreased 0.4% to $3380.20/ounce, and COMEX silver declined 0.6% to $37.93/ounce. In the domestic market, AU2510 dropped 0.3% to 775.06 yuan/gram, and AG2510 fell 0.8% to 9187 yuan/kilogram. [3] - Price Spreads and Ratios: From August 18 to August 19, the spread of gold TD - SHFE active price increased 5.8% to - 3.47 yuan/gram, and the spread of silver TD - SHFE active price decreased 19.4% to - 25 yuan/kilogram. [3] Position Data - ETF Holdings: As of August 18, compared to August 15, the gold ETF - SPDR remained unchanged at 965.36 tons, and the silver ETF - SLV increased 1.89% to 15356.60489 tons. [3] - Non - commercial Positions in COMEX: For COMEX gold, from August 15 to August 18, non - commercial long positions decreased 1.40% to 288115 contracts, non - commercial short positions increased 6.32% to 58630 contracts, and net long positions decreased 3.19% to 229485 contracts. For COMEX silver, non - commercial long positions decreased 6.99% to 66252 contracts, non - commercial short positions increased 6.84% to 21984 contracts, and net long positions decreased 12.61% to 44268 contracts. [3] Inventory Data - SHFE Inventories: On August 19, compared to August 18, SHFE gold inventories decreased 0.03% to 36333 kilograms, and SHFE silver inventories increased 0.97% to 1149446 kilograms. [3] - COMEX Inventories: From August 15 to August 18, COMEX gold inventories increased 0.03% to 38646556 ounce, and COMEX silver inventories remained unchanged at 507551254 ounce. [3] Interest Rates, Exchange Rates, and Stock Markets - Interest Rates: From August 18 to August 19, the 2 - year US Treasury yield increased 0.05%. [4] - Exchange Rates and Stock Markets: The dollar index increased 0.31%, the VIX decreased 0.66%, the S&P 500 decreased 0.01%, the dollar/yuan central parity rate increased 0.53%, and NYMEX crude oil decreased 0.89%. [4] Key News - Trump plans a three - way meeting between the US, Russia, and Ukraine after meeting with Zelensky, and Zelensky said that Ukraine no longer insists on a cease - fire as a prerequisite for negotiation, and territorial issues can only be discussed with Putin. [4] Operation Strategy - For gold, in the short - term, it is expected to fluctuate within a range. Pay attention to the speech of the Fed Chairman at the global central bank annual meeting this week. In the long - term, it is recommended to cautiously go long at low prices. For silver, in the short - term, it is expected to be volatile, and in the medium - term, caution is needed regarding its upside potential. [4]