“十五五”规划展望系列：反内卷中寻投资机会

Group 1 - The report emphasizes the importance of addressing "involution" in the context of China's economic development, highlighting the negative impacts of disorderly expansion and price competition on high-quality growth [2][4][12] - The report notes that China's industrial capacity utilization has been declining since 2021, with the Producer Price Index (PPI) showing negative year-on-year growth for 34 consecutive months as of July 2025 [2][4][12] - The "15th Five-Year Plan" period is expected to see a continuation and deepening of policies aimed at countering involution, focusing on capacity governance and preventing vicious competition [2][12] Group 2 - The report compares the current "anti-involution" policies with previous supply-side structural reforms, noting that both aim to address structural issues in the economy and enhance long-term competitiveness [2][13] - The previous round of supply-side reforms successfully boosted the coal and steel industries, with significant reductions in excess capacity and improvements in profitability [2][17] - The report outlines that the current anti-involution policies cover a broader range of industries, including both traditional sectors like steel and coal, as well as emerging industries such as photovoltaics and electric vehicles [2][12][10] Group 3 - The report discusses the financial indicators of related industries, indicating that revenue growth rates and profit margins are critical metrics for assessing the impact of anti-involution policies [3][4] - It highlights that since July 2025, many commodities related to anti-involution have seen price increases, driving up the performance of relevant sector indices [2][12] - The report suggests that the anti-involution policies are expected to improve gross margins and capacity utilization, thereby enhancing the long-term investment value of related sectors [2][12]