蛋白数据日报-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The new - crop US soybean balance sheet is tight, and under the change of current Sino - US trade, the Brazilian premium is expected to have upward space. With the expectation of rising import costs, M01 is expected to fluctuate strongly. It is necessary to continue to pay attention to relevant news about Argentine soybeans and the results of the Pro Farmer inspection [5][6][7] 3. Summaries According to Related Catalogs 3.1 Basis and Spread Data - On August 19, the basis of the main soybean meal contract in Dalian and Rizhao was 47, in Tianjin it was - 13, and the 43% soybean meal spot basis in Zhangjiagang was - 43, in Dongguan - 133, in Zhanjiang - 73, and in Fangcheng - 93, all with a decline of - 13. The rapeseed meal spot basis in Guangdong was - 41, with an increase of 10. The M9 - 1 spread was - 48, and the RM9 - 1 spread was 74. The spot spread of soybean meal - rapeseed meal in Guangdong was 435, with an increase of 23, and the spread of the main contract was 343 [4][5] 3.2 International Data - The US dollar to RMB exchange rate was 7.1325. The Brazilian soybean CNF premium (continuous month) and the import soybean disk gross profit are shown in the corresponding charts. The Brazilian disk crushing profit was 307 yuan/ton, with an increase of 2 [5] 3.3 Inventory Data - The inventory of soybeans at Chinese ports and the inventory of soybeans in major domestic oil mills are presented in the corresponding charts. The inventory of soybean meal in major domestic oil mills and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises are also shown in the charts. The domestic soybean inventory has increased to a high level, the speed of soybean meal inventory accumulation has slowed down but is still in the inventory - accumulation cycle, and the inventory days of soybean meal in feed enterprises have increased [5][7] 3.4开机和压榨情况 - The operating rate and soybean crushing volume of major domestic oil mills are presented in the corresponding charts [5] 3.5 Supply and Demand Analysis - Supply: The USDA August report raised the US soybean yield per acre from 52.5 to 53.6 bushels per acre, but unexpectedly reduced the planting area of US soybeans in the 25/26 season by 2.5 million acres to 80.9 million acres. It also raised the old - crop exports and continued to reduce the new - crop exports to 1.705 billion bushels. The ending inventory of US soybeans in the 25/26 season was reduced from 310 million bushels in the July forecast to 290 million bushels. The good - to - excellent rate of US soybeans this week was 68%. The rainfall in the production areas in the next two weeks is expected to be low, which may lead to a decline in the good - to - excellent rate. The expected arrival volume of soybeans in China from August to September is over 10 million tons, and soybean meal is still in the inventory - accumulation cycle. The purchase of ships from October to January is slow, and there is an expectation of inventory reduction in the far - month under the current Sino - US trade policy [5][6] - Demand: The short - term high inventory of pig and poultry breeding supports the feed demand, but the policy aims to control the inventory and weight of pigs, which is expected to affect the supply of pigs in the future. The cost - performance of soybean meal is high, and the pick - up volume is at a high level. Wheat substitutes for corn in some areas, reducing the use of protein. The downstream trading of soybean meal this week was cautious [6][7]