Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views Coke - The sixth round of coke price increase has started, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. Coke enterprise profits have significantly improved, coke production from coke enterprises has increased, while that from steel mills has declined, leading to an overall rise in total coke production. - Last week, the molten iron output decreased slightly on a weekly basis. With the support of non - five major steel products demand, the seasonal decline of molten iron output is expected to be limited and may remain at a high level, which will support the futures market. - Coke enterprise inventory has decreased, steel mill inventory has declined, port inventory has increased on a weekly basis, and the total coke inventory has decreased. - Currently, market sentiment has cooled, and the futures market has returned to the industrial logic. With the sixth round of price increase, coke enterprise profits have recovered significantly, and coke production has slightly increased. The high molten iron output and non - five major steel products demand are expected to limit the decline of molten iron output. Given the relatively high current steel mill inventory level, the subsequent restocking willingness is expected to decline. The coking coal cost has a significant impact on coke, and there are still fluctuations at the coal mine end. A bullish and volatile approach is recommended. The operating range of the coke index is expected to be between 1630 - 1790 [5]. Coking Coal - Affected by over - production inspections, coal mine production has significantly declined. The subsequent military parade on September 3 is expected to further reduce coal mine production. The daily customs clearance volume at Ganqimao Port has recovered to over 100,000 tons. - Coke production has increased on a weekly basis but remains at a low level compared to previous years, providing limited support for coking coal demand. - After a period of restocking, the current restocking willingness of downstream enterprises has weakened, and the pace of coal mine inventory reduction has significantly slowed down. Last week, coke enterprises reduced inventory, steel mills restocked, and ports reduced inventory. The total coking coal inventory has decreased. - Under the influence of over - production inspections, coal mine production has significantly contracted. Coupled with the upcoming military parade on September 3, coal mine production may continue to be affected. The customs clearance of Mongolian coal remains at a high level. Coke production is at a low level compared to the same period in previous years, providing limited support for coking coal demand. The restocking intensity of coking coal downstream has slowed down, and coal mine inventory has slightly decreased. Currently, coking coal supply has contracted while the demand side still has support, with a relatively good fundamental situation. A bullish and volatile view is taken, and the operating range of the coking coal index is expected to be between 1120 - 1290 [6]. Summary by Directory Coke Supply - The sixth round of coke price increase has started, with an increase of 50 - 55 yuan/ton. Coke enterprise profits have significantly improved, coke production from coke enterprises has increased, while that from steel mills has declined, leading to an overall rise in total coke production. As of August 8, the daily average coke output of all - sample coking plants was 65.1 tons (+0.29), that of 247 steel mill coking plants was 46.8 tons (-0.17), and the total output of all - sample coke enterprises and 247 steel mills was 111.9 tons (+0.12) [5][15]. Profit - The sixth round of price increase has started, and coke enterprise profits have significantly improved. As of August 8, the average profit per ton of independent coking enterprises was - 16 yuan/ton (+29) [17][19]. Demand - Last week, the molten iron output decreased slightly on a weekly basis. With the support of non - five major steel products demand, the seasonal decline of molten iron output is expected to be limited and may remain at a high level, which will support the futures market. As of August 8, the daily average molten iron output was 240.32 tons (-0.39); the weekly total output of five major steel products was 869.21 tons (+1.79); the steel mill profitability rate was 68.4% (+3.03); the blast furnace capacity utilization rate of 247 steel enterprises was 90.09% (-0.15); the blast furnace operation rate was 83.75% (+0.29) [21][23]. Inventory - Coke enterprise inventory has decreased, steel mill inventory has declined, port inventory has increased on a weekly basis, and the total coke inventory has decreased. As of August 8, the inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 69.73 tons (-3.89); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 619.28 tons (-7.41); the total coke inventory of four major ports was 218.15 tons (+3.05); the total coke inventory was 907.16 tons (-8.25) [25][27]. Inventory Available Days - The inventory available days of 247 steel mill sample coking plants was 10.91 days (-0.26) [31]. Basis - As of August 8, the basis of the coke 01 contract was - 151, the basis of the 05 contract was - 234, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 70. Currently, the basis has no obvious driving effect on the futures market [34]. Calendar Spread - As of August 8, the 9 - 1 contract spread was - 80.5, and the 1 - 5 contract spread was - 83. There are currently no calendar spread opportunities [38]. Coking Coal Supply - Affected by over - production inspections, coal mine production has significantly declined. The subsequent military parade on September 3 is expected to further reduce coal mine production. The daily customs clearance volume at Ganqimao Port has recovered to over 100,000 tons. As of August 8, the daily average output of 523 sample mines was 188.27 tons (-5.29), with an operation rate of 83.89% (-2.42); the daily average output of coal washing plants was 52.14 tons (-0.01), with an operation rate of 61.51% (-0.8) [42][44]. Demand - Coke production has increased on a weekly basis but remains at a low level compared to previous years, providing limited support for coking coal demand. As of August 8, the total inventory of 230 independent coking plants was 832.75 tons (-11.31), with available days of 12.04 days (-0.21), corresponding to a daily coking coal consumption of 69.17 tons (+0.26); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 808.66 tons (+4.87), with available days of 12.99 days (+0.12), and the converted daily consumption was 62.25 tons (-0.2); the total daily consumption was 131.42 tons (+0.06) [49][51]. Washery Inventory - As of August 8, the raw coal inventory of coal washing plants was 277.1 tons (-15.43); the clean coal inventory was 166.38 tons (-9.23) [53][55]. Inventory - After a period of restocking, the current restocking willingness of downstream enterprises has weakened, and the pace of coal mine inventory reduction has significantly slowed down. Last week, coke enterprises reduced inventory, steel mills restocked, and ports reduced inventory. The total coking coal inventory has decreased. As of August 8, the port inventory was 277.34 tons (-4.77); the inventory of 247 steel mills was 808.66 tons (+4.87); the coking coal inventory of all - sample independent coking plants was 987.92 tons (-4.81); the clean coal inventory of 532 sample mines was 245.66 tons (-2.6); the total coking coal inventory was 2319.58 tons (-7.31). The available days of coking coal for 230 independent coking plants were 12.04 days (-0.21); the available days of coking coal inventory for 247 steel enterprises were 12.99 days (+0.12) [57][62]. Basis - As of August 8, the basis of the coking coal 01 contract was - 220, the basis of the 05 contract was - 259, and the basis of the 09 contract was - 62. Currently, the basis has a downward driving effect on the futures market [67]. Calendar Spread - As of August 8, the 9 - 1 contract spread was - 157.5, and the 1 - 5 contract spread was - 39. There are currently no calendar spread opportunities [71].
焦炭第六轮提涨开启，煤矿供应显著下滑
Mai Ke Qi Huo·2025-08-20 07:57