Dongguan Securities·2025-08-20 08:24Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the express delivery industry, expecting the industry index to outperform the market index by over 10% in the next six months [7]. Core Insights - The express delivery volume continues to grow rapidly, with a cumulative completion of 1120.5 billion pieces from January to July 2025, representing a year-on-year increase of 18.7%. In July alone, the volume reached 164 billion pieces, up 15.1% year-on-year [2]. - The industry's revenue growth lags behind volume growth, with a cumulative revenue of 8394.2 billion yuan from January to July 2025, reflecting a year-on-year increase of 9.9%. The average revenue per piece in July was 7.36 yuan, down 5.33% year-on-year [2]. - Market concentration has slightly decreased, with the CR8 index at 86.9, down 0.1 from June. Major players like SF Express, Yunda, Shentong, and YTO have seen varying growth rates in volume and revenue per piece, indicating a temporary easing of competitive pressure [3]. - Regulatory measures against "involution" have led to price increases in key production areas, with minimum prices raised to 1.4 yuan per piece in Guangdong province starting August 4, 2025. This is expected to improve profitability in the industry [4]. Summary by Sections Industry Performance - The express delivery sector has shown robust growth in volume, but revenue growth remains slower, indicating a reliance on price reductions to drive volume [2]. Market Dynamics - The competitive landscape is stabilizing, with major companies experiencing seasonal volume declines and slight decreases in average revenue per piece. The market concentration has decreased slightly, suggesting a reduction in competitive intensity [3]. Regulatory Environment - Recent regulatory actions have aimed to curb excessive competition, leading to price adjustments that could enhance profitability for express delivery companies [4][5]. Investment Strategy - The report suggests a positive outlook for the express delivery industry under the new regulatory framework, recommending attention to leading companies such as SF Express, YTO Express, Shentong Express, and Yunda [5].