Xinda Securities·2025-08-20 08:21Investment Rating - The investment rating for Yanzhou Coal Mining Company (兖矿能源) is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The report highlights that Yanzhou Coal Mining's Australian subsidiary, Yancoal Australia, has seen an increase in coal production while maintaining stable prices, leading to expected performance improvements in the second half of 2025 [3][4] - The report anticipates that Yancoal Australia will achieve a net profit of AUD 440 million in 2025, contributing approximately RMB 1.27 billion to Yanzhou Coal Mining's earnings [4][6] - The report emphasizes the company's strong cash position, with AUD 1.8 billion in cash and a net cash status, allowing for dividend returns and business growth opportunities [6] Summary by Sections Financial Performance - In the first half of 2025, Yancoal Australia achieved a coal production of 18.9 million tons, an increase of 11% year-on-year, while coal sales were 16.6 million tons, a decrease of 2% year-on-year [3] - The average selling price for coal in the first half of 2025 was AUD 149 per ton, down 17% year-on-year, with a notable decline in metallurgical coal prices [3] - The cash operating cost for the first half of 2025 was AUD 93 per ton, an 8% decrease year-on-year, indicating a potential for further cost reductions in the second half of 2025 [3] Earnings Forecast - The forecast for Yanzhou Coal Mining's net profit for 2025 is RMB 11.4 billion, with projected earnings per share (EPS) of RMB 1.14 [5][6] - The report predicts a gradual recovery in coal prices and a rebound in sales volume, which could lead to significant improvements in the company's performance in the latter half of 2025 [3][4] Market Conditions - The report notes that international coal prices have been declining but are expected to stabilize and recover as demand increases in the third quarter of 2025 [3] - The API 5 coal price index fell from an average of USD 88 per ton in Q4 2024 to USD 68 per ton in Q2 2025, a decrease of 23%, but has shown signs of recovery recently [3]