Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No information provided on the industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoint The V2601 contract of PVC ended at 5008 yuan/ton. The supply side saw the PVC capacity utilization rate increase by 0.87% week-on-week to 80.33% last week. The demand side had the downstream PVC开工率 decrease by 0.1% week-on-week to 42.75% last week. PVC social inventory increased by 4.53% week-on-week to 81.14 million tons. This week, due to plant overhauls, the PVC capacity utilization rate is expected to decline. In the medium to long term, new PVC production capacity is planned to be put into operation in August, and the considerable chlor-alkali profits provide room for increasing PVC plant load, so the future supply pressure remains unoptimistic. Domestic downstream demand is in the off-season with only rigid procurement. The weak terminal real estate market continues to drag down domestic demand. The Indian BIS certification is postponed to mid - December, and the anti - dumping policy is expected to be implemented as early as September. The rainy season still hinders short - term overseas demand transmission. Technically, V2601 should focus on the support around 4900 yuan/ton [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of PVC futures was 5008 yuan/ton, with a daily increase of 7 yuan/ton. The trading volume was 960,719 lots, a daily increase of 280,340 lots. The open interest was 943,093 lots, a daily increase of 20,013 lots. The long positions of the top 20 futures holders were 852,889 lots, a daily decrease of 3,341 lots. The short positions were 921,736 lots, a daily decrease of 15,497 lots. The net long positions were - 68,847 lots, a daily increase of 12,156 lots [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - In the East China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 5065 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 10 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4777.69 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 46.54 yuan/ton. In the South China region, the price of ethylene - based PVC was 4955 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 20 yuan/ton; the price of calcium carbide - based PVC was 4846.56 yuan/ton, a daily decrease of 32.81 yuan/ton. The CIF price of PVC in China was 700 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the CIF price in Southeast Asia was 680 US dollars/ton, unchanged; the FOB price in Northwest Europe was 750 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The basis of PVC was - 251 yuan/ton, a daily increase of 3 yuan/ton [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream average price of calcium carbide in Central China was 2650 yuan/ton, unchanged; in North China, it was 2548.33 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Northwest China, it was 2320 yuan/ton, unchanged. The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Inner Mongolia was - 575 yuan/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of VCM in the Far East was 521 US dollars/ton, unchanged; in Southeast Asia, it was 548 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The CFR mid - price of EDC in the Far East was 181 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 8 US dollars/ton; in Southeast Asia, it was 189 US dollars/ton, a weekly decrease of 9 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The weekly operating rate of PVC was 80.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87%. The operating rate of calcium carbide - based PVC was 79.96%, a week - on - week increase of 1.31%. The operating rate of ethylene - based PVC was 81.26%, a week - on - week decrease of 0.23%. The total social inventory of PVC was 492,800 tons, a daily increase of 12,000 tons. The total social inventory in the East China region was 435,200 tons, a daily increase of 11,500 tons. The total social inventory in the South China region was 57,600 tons, a daily increase of 500 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The national real estate climate index was 93.34, a monthly decrease of 0.26. The cumulative value of new housing construction area was 35.206 million square meters, a monthly increase of 4.84168 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate construction area was 6.38731 billion square meters, a monthly increase of 5.40957 million square meters. The cumulative value of real estate development investment was 244.755 billion yuan, a monthly increase of 53.2069 billion yuan [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of PVC was 22.25%, a daily decrease of 3.7%. The 40 - day historical volatility was 22.06%, a daily decrease of 0.97%. The implied volatility of at - the - money put options was 15.39%, a daily decrease of 1.32%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call options was 15.4%, a daily decrease of 14.17% [3]. 3.7 Industry News - India may adjust the anti - dumping tax rate on imported PVC. The rate for mainland China will be raised much higher than that for other countries and regions. - On August 20, the market prices of PVC SG5 in Shanghai, Changzhou, and Hangzhou decreased by 0 - 40 yuan/ton compared with the previous day, ranging from 4700 to 4800 yuan/ton. - From August 9 to August 15, China's PVC capacity utilization rate was 80.33%, a week - on - week increase of 0.87%. - As of August 14, PVC social inventory increased by 4.53% week - on - week to 81.14 million tons and decreased by 12.72% year - on - year [3].
瑞达期货PVC产业日报-20250820