瑞达期货沪锌产业日报-20250820

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - There is no information about the industry investment rating in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The supply of zinc is increasing as the profits of smelters are further repaired, production enthusiasm is increasing, new capacities are being released, and previously shut - down capacities are resuming production. Meanwhile, the import loss is expanding, leading to a decline in imported zinc inflows. On the demand side, it is the off - season, the downstream processing enterprise's operating rate has decreased year - on - year, and the overall trading volume is dull with continuous accumulation of domestic social inventory and a decline in spot premiums. The overseas LME inventory has decreased significantly, and the LME spot premium has been adjusted downwards, which may weaken the support for domestic zinc prices. Technically, the price is adjusted at a low position of holdings and has fallen below the MA60. It is recommended to wait and see or conduct range operations [3]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of Shanghai Zinc is 22,265 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan; the 09 - 10 contract spread of Shanghai Zinc is 20 yuan/ton, up 5 yuan; the LME three - month zinc quotation is 2,770 dollars/ton, down 7 dollars; the total open interest of Shanghai Zinc is 216,150 lots, up 1,551 lots; the net open interest of the top 20 in Shanghai Zinc is - 5,980 lots, down 2,348 lots; the Shanghai Zinc warehouse receipts are 32,288 tons, down 250 tons; the SHFE inventory is 76,803 tons, up 10,886 tons; the LME inventory is 72,200 tons, down 3,650 tons [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 0 zinc on Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 22,170 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the spot price of 1 zinc in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 21,980 yuan/ton, down 30 yuan; the basis of the main ZN contract is - 95 yuan/ton, down 90 yuan; the LME zinc premium (0 - 3) is - 10.26 dollars/ton, down 1.61 dollars; the arrival price of 50% zinc concentrate in Kunming is 16,940 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan; the price of 85% - 86% crushed zinc in Shanghai is 15,850 yuan/ton, unchanged [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The WBMS zinc supply - demand balance is - 124,700 tons, down 104,100 tons; the ILZSG zinc supply - demand balance is - 69,100 tons, up 10,400 tons; the global zinc mine production of ILZSG is 1,007,500 tons, down 4,300 tons; the domestic refined zinc production is 628,000 tons, up 45,000 tons; the zinc ore import volume is 455,900 tons, up 124,900 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The refined zinc import volume is 35,156.02 tons, down 22,615.39 tons; the refined zinc export volume is 483.88 tons, up 266.83 tons; the zinc social inventory is 114,900 tons, up 4,900 tons [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of galvanized sheets is 2.32 million tons, down 130,000 tons; the monthly sales volume of galvanized sheets is 2.34 million tons, down 120,000 tons; the monthly new housing construction area is 352.06 million square meters, up 48.4168 million square meters; the monthly housing completion area is 250.34 million square meters, up 24.6739 million square meters; the monthly automobile production is 2.51 million vehicles, down 298,600 vehicles; the monthly air - conditioner production is 19.6788 million units, up 3.4764 million units [3]. 3.6 Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for zinc is 13.13%, down 1.32 percentage points; the implied volatility of at - the - money put options for zinc is 13.13%, down 1.32 percentage points; the 20 - day historical volatility of at - the - money options for zinc is 5.1%, down 0.28 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility of at - the - money options for zinc is 13.35%, up 0.18 percentage points [3]. 3.7 Industry News - In August, the LPR quotation remained unchanged, with the 5 - year - plus LPR at 3.5% and the 1 - year LPR at 3%. On August 18, Wang Yi held talks with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar, reaching 10 achievements. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments will further standardize the competition order of the photovoltaic industry and curb low - price and disorderly competition [3].