Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-20 09:12Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core Viewpoints - The probability of an increase in domestic urea production is high considering short - term enterprise malfunctions. Domestic agricultural demand is in a seasonal off - season with only sporadic local demand. During the autumn fertilizer production stage, the industrial demand for compound fertilizers leads to appropriate low - price purchases, but the increase in the compound fertilizer enterprise operating rate is slow, resulting in low rigid demand for urea. Downstream factories mainly make small low - price purchases. Although some urea enterprises' inventory decreases due to export orders and fault maintenance, the overall enterprise inventory is still on the rise. Short - term export news is beneficial for reducing urea enterprise inventory, but the decline may be limited due to enterprise restricted purchases and slow domestic demand improvement. The UR2601 contract is expected to fluctuate between 1770 - 1820 yuan/ton in the short term [2] 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the Zhengzhou urea main contract is 1776 yuan/ton, down 41 yuan/ton; the 9 - 1 spread is - 25 yuan/ton, up 9 yuan/ton. The main contract's open interest is 208,609 lots, down 4,424 lots; the net position of the top 20 is - 35,050 lots, down 3,584 lots. The exchange warehouse receipts are 3,573 sheets, unchanged [2] Spot Market - In the domestic spot market, prices in Hebei, Jiangsu, and Anhui are 1740 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Henan is 1740 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan/ton; the price in Shandong is 1770 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton. The main contract basis is - 6 yuan/ton, up 81 yuan/ton. FOB prices in the Baltic and China's main ports are both 450 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - Port inventory is 46.4 tons, down 1.9 tons; enterprise inventory is 95.74 tons, up 6.98 tons. The urea enterprise operating rate is 83.22%, up 1.24 percentage points; the daily output is 192,700 tons, up 2,900 tons. The urea export volume is 57 tons, up 50 tons; the monthly output is 6,052,080 tons, up 20,740 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The compound fertilizer operating rate is 43.48%, up 1.98 percentage points; the melamine operating rate is 49.82%, down 11.28 percentage points. The weekly profit of compound fertilizers in China is 116 yuan/ton, up 18 yuan/ton; the weekly profit of melamine with externally - purchased urea is - 78 yuan/ton, up 266 yuan/ton. The monthly output of compound fertilizers is 4.2212 million tons, up 53,000 tons; the weekly output of melamine is 24,800 tons, down 5,500 tons [2] Industry News - As of August 20, the total inventory of Chinese urea enterprises is 102.39 tons, up 6.65 tons, a 6.95% week - on - week increase. As of August 14, the port sample inventory is 46.4 tons, down 1.9 tons, a 3.93% week - on - week decrease. As of August 14, the production of Chinese urea enterprises is 1.3486 million tons, up 20,100 tons, a 1.51% week - on - week increase; the capacity utilization rate is 83.22%, up 1.24 percentage points, changing from a downward to an upward trend [2] Suggested Attention - Pay attention to Longzhong's enterprise inventory, port inventory, daily output, and operating rate on Thursday [2]