瑞达期货烧碱产业日报-20250820

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core Viewpoints - SH2601 rose 1.80% to close at 2,655 yuan/ton. On the supply side, last week, there were both shutdown and restarted plants in China, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate decreased by 1.0% week-on-week to 84.1%. On the demand side, last week, the alumina operating rate decreased by 0.09% week-on-week to 85.64%; the viscose staple fiber operating rate increased by 1.07% week-on-week to 86.04%, and the printing and dyeing operating rate increased by 2.19% week-on-week to 61.46%. In terms of inventory, last week, the liquid caustic soda factory inventory decreased by 5.18% week-on-week to 437,800 tons. This week, the number of maintenance plants in Shandong and other places will further increase, and the caustic soda capacity utilization rate is expected to further decline. Currently, the alumina industry has considerable profits, and there is no planned production cut, and the plants are expected to operate stably. The peak season for non-aluminum downstream industries is approaching, but the current rigid demand is still weak, waiting for signals of demand improvement. The inventory pressure of liquid caustic soda in Shandong is not large. Technically, SH2601 should pay attention to the support around 2,530 and the resistance around 2,700 [3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main caustic soda contract was 2,655 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; the position of the main caustic soda contract was 78,794 lots, up 14,720 lots; the net position of the top 20 futures contracts for caustic soda was -2,221 lots, up 11,389 lots; the trading volume of the main caustic soda contract was 351,729 lots, up 141,371 lots; the closing price of the caustic soda contract for January was 2,655 yuan/ton, up 57 yuan; the closing price of the caustic soda contract for May was 2,731 yuan/ton, up 37 yuan [3] 3.2 Spot Market - The price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda in Shandong was 840 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price in Jiangsu was 900 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; the converted price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong was 2,625 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of caustic soda was 27 yuan, down 31 yuan [3] 3.3 Upstream Situation - The mainstream price of raw salt in Shandong was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the mainstream price in the Northwest was 210 yuan/ton, unchanged; the price of steam coal was 643 yuan/ton, unchanged [3] 3.4 Industry Situation - The mainstream price of liquid chlorine in Shandong was -250 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the mainstream price in Jiangsu was -225 yuan/ton, up 25 yuan [3] 3.5 Downstream Situation - The spot price of viscose staple fiber was 13,040 yuan/ton, unchanged; the spot price of alumina was 3,210 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan [3] 3.6 Industry News - From August 8th to 14th, the average capacity utilization rate of Chinese caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above was 84.1%, a week-on-week decrease of 1.0%. As of August 14th, the inventory of fixed liquid caustic soda sample enterprises with a capacity of 200,000 tons and above in China was 437,800 tons (wet tons), a week-on-week decrease of 5.18% and a year-on-year increase of 18.61% [3]