Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-20 09:11Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - Internationally, the raw sugar price will experience wide - range fluctuations at a low level in the short term due to good production prospects in major Asian sugar - producing countries and a loose global supply outlook, along with concerns about the sugar content of Brazilian sugarcane in the 2025/26 season and signs of improved demand [2]. - Domestically, the profit window for out - of - quota imports remains open, leading to a significant increase in sugar imports in July. Beet sugar will start being pressed in September, increasing supply. Demand is expected to rise with the upcoming double - festival stocking. The inventory reduction process has slowed down due to an increase in processed sugar. The new - season sugar production is expected to be at a high level in the past four years. Overall, the domestic market will fluctuate in the short term, and the recommended operation is to wait and see [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main sugar futures contract is 5,676 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan; the main contract position is 343,739 hands, up 5,283 hands; the number of sugar warehouse receipts is 16,244 sheets, down 242 sheets; the net long position of the top 20 futures is - 17,660 hands; the effective warehouse receipt forecast is 1 sheet [2]. 现货市场 - The estimated import processing price of Brazilian sugar within the quota is 4,491 yuan/ton, down 43 yuan; that of Thai sugar is 4,509 yuan/ton, down 42 yuan. The estimated import price of Brazilian sugar out - of - quota (50% tariff) is 5,706 yuan/ton, and that of Thai sugar is 5,729 yuan/ton. The spot price of white granulated sugar in Kunming is 5,855 yuan/ton, unchanged; in Nanning is 5,970 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; in Liuzhou is 6,030 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - The national sugar - crop planting area is 1,480 thousand hectares, up 60 thousand hectares; the sugar - cane planting area in Guangxi is 835.09 thousand hectares, down 12.86 thousand hectares [2]. Industry Situation - The cumulative national sugar production is 1,116.21 million tons, up 5.49 million tons; the cumulative national sugar sales volume is 811.38 million tons, up 86.92 million tons; the national industrial sugar inventory is 304.83 million tons, down 81.43 million tons; the national sugar sales rate is 72.69%, up 7.47 percentage points; the monthly sugar import volume is 740,000 tons, up 320,000 tons; the total monthly sugar exports from Brazil are 359.37 million tons, up 23.47 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - The cumulative year - on - year growth rate of refined sugar production is 16.7%, up 2.6 percentage points; the cumulative year - on - year growth rate of soft - drink production is 2.9%, down 0.1 percentage point [2]. Option Market - The implied volatility of at - the - money call options for sugar is 8.25%, down 0.08 percentage points; that of at - the - money put options is 8.26%, down 0.08 percentage points. The 20 - day historical volatility of sugar is 8.3%, up 0.17 percentage points; the 60 - day historical volatility is 6.33%, up 0.05 percentage points [2]. Industry News - The average sugar - cane yield per hectare in the central - southern region of Brazil in July was 81.3 tons, a year - on - year decrease of 5.6% [2]. - On Tuesday, the ICE raw - sugar October contract rose 0.37%. On Wednesday, the sugar 2601 contract rose 0.05% [2].