Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-20 09:10Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Viewpoints of the Report - For rapeseed meal, the domestic market is mainly trading the issue of long - term supply, with the overall performance showing a strong and volatile trend. It is recommended to maintain a bullish mindset. Although there are some suppressing factors such as high oil - mill operation rates and soybean meal inventory accumulation, factors like low near - month rapeseed arrivals, increased seasonal demand in aquaculture, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed support the market [2]. - For rapeseed oil, the market also maintains a bullish mindset. Despite the short - term constraints of the off - season of oil consumption and sufficient supply, factors such as low oil - mill operation rates, fewer rapeseed purchases in the third quarter, and anti - dumping measures on Canadian rapeseed reduce supply pressure. The market has experienced a slight decline from its high and filled the gap, but remains volatile [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Futures closing prices: Rapeseed oil futures closing price (active contract) was 9828 yuan/ton, down 22 yuan; rapeseed meal was 2627 yuan/ton, up 23 yuan. ICE rapeseed futures closing price (active) was 645.8 Canadian dollars/ton, down 6.9 Canadian dollars; rapeseed futures closing price (active contract) was 4874 yuan/ton, down 45 yuan [2]. - Spreads: Rapeseed oil monthly spread (1 - 5) was 145 yuan/ton, down 6 yuan; rapeseed meal monthly spread (1 - 5) was 110 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan [2]. - Positions: Rapeseed oil main - contract positions were 279,566 lots, down 9038 lots; rapeseed meal main - contract positions were 436,474 lots, down 1510 lots. Rapeseed oil's top 20 futures net long positions were 7628 lots, up 4995 lots; rapeseed meal's were 5009 lots, up 2985 lots [2]. - Warehouse receipts: Rapeseed oil warehouse receipts were 3487 sheets, unchanged; rapeseed meal warehouse receipts were 8633 sheets, down 88 sheets [2]. Spot Market - Spot prices: Rapeseed oil spot price in Jiangsu was 10,030 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed meal spot price in Nantong was 2610 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan. The average rapeseed oil price was 10,095 yuan/ton, unchanged; rapeseed spot price in Yancheng, Jiangsu was 5700 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Basis: Rapeseed oil main - contract basis was 180 yuan/ton, down 24 yuan; rapeseed meal main - contract basis was - 17 yuan/ton, down 63 yuan [2]. - Substitute prices: Spot price of grade - 4 soybean oil in Nanjing was 8620 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; spot price of palm oil (24 - degree) in Guangdong was 9510 yuan/ton, down 200 yuan; spot price of soybean meal in Zhangjiagang was 3070 yuan/ton, unchanged [2]. - Price differences: Rapeseed - soybean oil spot price difference was 1210 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan; rapeseed - palm oil spot price difference was 320 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan; soybean - rapeseed meal spot price difference was 460 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Production: Global rapeseed production forecast for the year was 89.77 million tons, up 0.21 million tons; annual rapeseed production forecast was 12,378 thousand tons, unchanged [2]. - Imports: Total rapeseed import volume for the month was 18.45 million tons, down 15.1 million tons; import volume of rapeseed oil and mustard oil for the month was 15 million tons, up 4 million tons; import volume of rapeseed meal for the month was 27.03 million tons, up 7.56 million tons [2]. - Inventory and operation rate: Total rapeseed inventory in oil mills was 15 million tons, unchanged; weekly import rapeseed operation rate was 11.94%, down 4.9% [2]. - Pressing profit: Imported rapeseed crushing profit was 596 yuan/ton, down 27 yuan [2]. Industry Situation - Inventory: Coastal rapeseed oil inventory was 10.45 million tons, down 0.55 million tons; coastal rapeseed meal inventory was 2.55 million tons, down 0.65 million tons. East China rapeseed oil inventory was 54.2 million tons, down 0.72 million tons; East China rapeseed meal inventory was 33.59 million tons, up 0.34 million tons. Guangxi rapeseed oil inventory was 5 million tons, down 0.5 million tons; South China rapeseed meal inventory was 21.8 million tons, up 0.8 million tons [2]. -提货量: Rapeseed oil weekly提货量 was 3.76 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; rapeseed meal weekly提货量 was 3.24 million tons, up 0.52 million tons [2]. Downstream Situation - Production: Feed production for the month was 2937.7 million tons, up 175.6 million tons; edible vegetable oil production for the month was 476.9 million tons, up 41.8 million tons [2]. - Consumption: Total retail sales of consumer goods in the catering industry for the month was 4707.6 billion yuan, up 129.4 billion yuan [2]. Option Market - Implied volatility: Rapeseed meal at - the - money call option implied volatility was 20.98%, down 1.43%; at - the - money put option implied volatility was 20.97%, down 1.45%. Rapeseed oil at - the - money call option implied volatility was up 0.26% [2]. - Historical volatility: Rapeseed meal 20 - day historical volatility was 31.15%, up 0.06%; 60 - day historical volatility was 21.32%, up 0.03%. Rapeseed oil 20 - day historical volatility was 13.44%, up 0.54%; 60 - day historical volatility was 13.47%, up 0.28% [2]. Industry News - ICE rapeseed futures declined on August 19. The most actively traded November rapeseed futures contract fell 5.70 Canadian dollars to settle at 646 Canadian dollars per ton, and the January contract fell 5.80 Canadian dollars to settle at 657.50 Canadian dollars per ton [2]. - The US Department of Agriculture unexpectedly lowered the US soybean harvest area, reducing production and ending stocks, which was overall bullish for the market. However, the good US soybean good - quality rate still constrained prices, and the market awaited the results of ProFarmer's inspection of US Midwest crops [2]. Key Points to Watch - Monday's rapeseed operation rate and rapeseed oil and meal inventory data from My Agricultural Network, as well as the development of China - Canada and Canada - US trade disputes [2].