Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-20 09:18Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints of the Report - The alumina market may be in a stage of slightly increasing supply and demand, with stable demand, loose spot supply, and a possible slight accumulation of inventory. The recommended operation is to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - The electrolytic aluminum market may be in a situation of relatively stable supply and temporarily weak demand, with a slight accumulation of industrial inventory and a decline in the proportion of molten aluminum. The option market sentiment is slightly bullish, and the recommended operation is to go long on dips with a light position [2]. - The cast - aluminum alloy market may be in a stage of reduced supply and weakening demand during the off - season, with continuous accumulation of industrial inventory. The recommended operation is to go long on dips with a light position [2]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Aluminum - related Contracts: The closing price of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract was 20,535 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was 70 yuan, up 25 yuan. The main contract position of Shanghai Aluminum decreased by 6,671 hands to 228,028 hands. The LME electrolytic aluminum three - month quotation was 2,567.50 US dollars/ton, down 21 US dollars; the LME aluminum inventory was 479,525 tons, up 1,105 tons. The Shanghai - London ratio was 8.00, up 0.06 [2]. - Alumina Contracts: The closing price of the alumina futures main contract was 3,147 yuan/ton, up 27 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was 1 yuan, unchanged. The main contract position of alumina decreased by 15,924 hands to 176,803 hands [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy Contracts: The closing price of the cast aluminum alloy main contract was 20,075 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan; the main - second - consecutive contract spread was 20 yuan, down 20 yuan. The main contract position of cast aluminum alloy decreased by 23 hands to 7,889 hands [2]. Spot Market - Aluminum Spot: The price of Shanghai Non - ferrous Network A00 aluminum was 20,520 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan; the price of Yangtze River Non - ferrous Market AOO aluminum was 20,630 yuan/ton, down 130 yuan. The basis of electrolytic aluminum was - 15 yuan, down 60 yuan; the Shanghai Wuma aluminum premium was 10 yuan, up 30 yuan; the LME aluminum premium was - 3.59 US dollars/ton, down 3.54 US dollars [2]. - Alumina Spot: The alumina spot price in Shanghai Non - ferrous was 3,205 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan; the basis of alumina was 58 yuan, down 32 yuan [2]. - Cast Aluminum Alloy Spot: The average price (tax - included) of ADC12 aluminum alloy ingots nationwide was 20,350 yuan/ton, unchanged; the basis of cast aluminum alloy was 275 yuan, down 435 yuan [2]. Upstream Situation - Alumina Production: The alumina production in the current month was 756.49 million tons, down 18.44 million tons; the capacity utilization rate was 84.75%, up 0.45 percentage points; the demand for alumina (electrolytic aluminum part) was 696.19 million tons, down 23.83 million tons; the supply - demand balance was 27.14 million tons, up 52.40 million tons [2]. - Aluminum Scrap: The average price of crushed raw aluminum in Foshan metal scrap was 16,200 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price in Shandong metal scrap was 15,750 yuan/ton, unchanged. China's import volume of aluminum scrap and fragments was 160,494.61 tons, up 4,900.05 tons; the export volume was 79.39 tons, up 15.06 tons [2]. - Alumina Trade: The export volume of alumina in the current month was 23 million tons, up 6 million tons; the import volume was 10.13 million tons, up 3.38 million tons [2]. Industry Situation - Aluminum Supply and Demand: The WBMS aluminum supply - demand balance was 27.72 million tons, down 1.79 million tons. The import volume of primary aluminum was 248,198.71 tons; the export volume was 40,987.71 tons, up 21,416.99 tons. The electrolytic aluminum social inventory was 54.70 million tons, up 55,884.22 tons; the total electrolytic aluminum production capacity was 4,523.20 million tons, up 2.50 million tons; the electrolytic aluminum operating rate was 97.78%, up 0.10 percentage points [2]. - Aluminum Product Production: The output of aluminum products was 548.37 million tons, down 39 million tons; the export volume of unforged aluminum and aluminum products was 54 million tons, up 5 million tons. The output of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 61.89 million tons, up 0.29 million tons; the export volume of aluminum alloy was 2.49 million tons, down 0.09 million tons [2]. Downstream and Application - Aluminum - related Product Production: The total built - in production capacity of recycled aluminum alloy ingots was 126 million tons, down 1.10 million tons; the output of aluminum alloy was 153.60 million tons, down 13.30 million tons; the output of automobiles was 251.02 million vehicles, down 29.84 million vehicles [2]. - Real Estate Index: The national real estate prosperity index was 93.34, down 0.25 [2]. Option Situation - Volatility and Ratio: The 20 - day historical volatility of Shanghai Aluminum was 5.61%, down 0.24 percentage points; the 40 - day historical volatility was 8.30%, down 0.01 percentage points. The implied volatility of the Shanghai Aluminum main contract at - the - money was 8.86%, down 0.0053 percentage points; the call - put ratio of Shanghai Aluminum options was 1.10, down 0.0489 [2]. Industry News - Tax Revenue: From January to July, the tax revenue of equipment manufacturing, modern service industries, etc. performed well. The tax revenue of equipment manufacturing industries such as railway, ship, aerospace equipment, computer and communication equipment, and electrical machinery and equipment increased by 33%, 10.1%, and 8% respectively. The tax revenue of scientific research and technology service industries increased by 12.7%, and that of culture, sports and entertainment industries increased by 4.1% [2]. - Consumption Policy: The national consumer goods trade - in work promotion video conference was held in Beijing, emphasizing the need to optimize policies steadily and implement consumption - promotion incremental policies [2]. - Sovereign Rating: S&P confirmed the US "AA+/A - 1+" sovereign rating with a stable outlook [2]. - Subsidy Policy: Heilongjiang adjusted the consumer goods trade - in subsidy policy. From August 23, car replacement will be subsidized in three levels [2]. - Budget Revenue and Expenditure: In July, the national general public budget revenue was 202.73 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 2.6%. From January to July, the cumulative increase turned positive for the first time. The national general public budget expenditure was 1,607.37 billion yuan, a year - on - year increase of 3.4% [2]. - Photovoltaic Industry: Six departments including the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology called on the photovoltaic industry to regulate competition order and promote healthy development [2]. - Tariff Policy: The US Department of Commerce included 407 product categories in the steel and aluminum tariff list with a 50% tax rate [2].