Ruida Futures(SZ:002961) Rui Da Qi Huo·2025-08-20 09:17Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core Viewpoints - The Indonesian government's PNBP policy restricts issuance, increasing the cost of nickel resource supply, and the premium of domestic trade ore remains stable. The supply of nickel ore from the Philippines has recovered, but the domestic nickel ore port inventory has decreased, resulting in a tight raw material situation. In July, the production rhythm of leading enterprises remained stable, the output of a few smelters increased, and new production capacity is still planned to be put into operation, driving a slight increase in the overall refined nickel output. On the demand side, the profit of stainless - steel plants has improved, and the plants have increased production. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continue to rise, but the demand for ternary batteries is limited. Recently, the nickel price has declined, the downstream purchasing atmosphere at low prices has improved, the spot premium has risen, and the domestic inventory has slightly decreased. The overseas LME inventory has also decreased. Technically, the position increases while the price falls, indicating a divergence between long and short positions. It is expected to fluctuate widely within a range. Operationally, it is recommended to wait and see or conduct range - bound operations, with a reference range of 119,500 - 124,000 yuan/ton [3] Summary by Directory Futures Market - The closing price of the main futures contract of Shanghai nickel is 119,930 yuan/ton, down 400 yuan/ton; the spread between the September - October contracts of Shanghai nickel is - 130 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton. The LME 3 - month nickel price is 15,060 US dollars/ton, down 110 US dollars/ton. The position of the main contract of Shanghai nickel is 50,856 lots, down 5,111 lots. The net long position of the top 20 futures holders of Shanghai nickel is - 31,236 lots, down 512 lots. The LME nickel inventory is 209,328 tons, down 1,086 tons. The Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory is 26,962 tons, up 768 tons. The LME nickel cancelled warrants total 10,008 tons, down 1,086 tons. The warehouse receipt quantity of Shanghai nickel is 22,559 tons, down 282 tons [3] 现货市场 - The SMM 1 nickel spot price is 120,900 yuan/ton, down 750 yuan/ton. The average spot price of 1 nickel plate in the Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 120,800 yuan/ton, down 950 yuan/ton. The CIF (bill of lading) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The bonded warehouse (warehouse receipt) price of Shanghai electrolytic nickel is 85 US dollars/ton, unchanged. The average price of battery - grade nickel sulfate is 27,900 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of the NI main contract is 970 yuan/ton, down 350 yuan/ton. The LME nickel (spot/three - month) premium is - 205.19 US dollars/ton, down 10.54 US dollars/ton [3] Upstream Situation - The monthly import volume of nickel ore is 434.66 million tons, an increase of 41.94 million tons. The total port inventory of nickel ore is 1,095.16 million tons, an increase of 61.82 million tons. The average monthly import unit price of nickel ore is 65.84 US dollars/ton, down 7.57 US dollars/ton. The tax - included price of Indonesian laterite nickel ore with 1.8% Ni is 41.71 US dollars/wet ton, unchanged [3] Industry Situation - The monthly output of electrolytic nickel is 29,430 tons, an increase of 1,120 tons. The total monthly output of ferronickel is 22,200 metal tons, a decrease of 400 metal tons. The monthly import volume of refined nickel and alloys is 17,215.27 tons, a decrease of 472.3 tons. The monthly import volume of ferronickel is 1.0414 million tons, an increase of 193,200 tons [3] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of 300 - series stainless steel is 1.6981 million tons, a decrease of 45,900 tons. The total weekly inventory of 300 - series stainless steel is 582,700 tons, a decrease of 10,200 tons [3] Industry News - In August, the LPR quotation remained unchanged: the over - 5 - year LPR was 3.5%, and the 1 - year LPR was 3%. On August 18, Wang Yi, a member of the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee and Minister of Foreign Affairs, held talks with Indian Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar in New Delhi. The two sides had positive, constructive, and forward - looking discussions on bilateral, regional, and international issues of common concern and reached 10 achievements. The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology and other departments further regulated the competition order of the photovoltaic industry and curbed low - price disorderly competition [3]